安踏品牌的使命被其他品牌的挑战所抵消

FY26EFY27E87,21995,53011.19.520,188.222,422.816,684.918,770.75.205.8514.112.515.814.03.02.73.13.522.822.931.738.3 Target PriceHK$111.54(Previous TPHK$119.08)Up/Downside24.2%Current PriceHK$89.80China Consumer DiscretionaryWalter WOO(852) 37618776walterwoo@cmbi.com.hkStock DataMkt Cap (HK$ mn)242,758.9Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn)52w High/Low (HK$)106.30/65.90Total Issued Shares (mn)Source: FactSetShareholding StructureMr. Ding Shi zhong & FamilyTheVanguard GroupSource: HKExShare PerformanceAbsoluteRelative-3.7%2.5%14.8%Source: FactSet12-mth Price PerformanceSource: FactSetRecent Reports:Li Ning (2331 HK)-2Q25 roughly inlineand transition in progress(15Jul25)Topsports (6110 HK)-Prudent guidancebutstrong cash flow & yield(23May25)Xtep(1368HK)-Inline 1Q25 results anda moderate outlook(18Apr25)Anta Sports (2020 HK)-Acquisition ofJack Wolfskin finally announced(14Apr25)Li Ning (2331 HK)-Conservativeguidance but quite expected(31Mar25)Anta Sports (2020 HK)-Prudent targetsbut the trend is encouraging(20Mar25) 746.52703.352.2%1.7%1-mth-6.4%3-mth-10.6%6-mth-10.0% 1 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEAnta’sretail sales growth missed CMBIestimatesin 1Q25,bothinventoryand discountshaveworsened slightly.Anta reported LSD retail sales growthin 2Q25,missingCMBIestimatesof HSD and the Company’s FY25E guidance,alsoslowingdown from HSD in 1Q25. Anta adult (offline + online)/ Anta Kids(offline + online)/ E-commerce sales growthwasat LSD/ LSD/ LSD. The miss,in our view, was mainly due to: 1)subduedconsumption demand, 2) weaker-than-expected reception of new products, 3) slower-than-expected e-commercesales growth (esp. during the 618 and Jun 2025), 4) limited discounts offer whenthe industry competition intensified, etc.. Noted that the new store formats suchas Champion stores (sales per store is 70% to 80% higher vs regular stores) andSuper stores (e-commerce business has further strengthened) are still growinghealthily,and we think the miss was largely online related. Inventory to salesratio was at about 5 months in 2Q25, increased slightly from 4.5 to 5 months in1Q25, a little bit weaker than expected. Retail discounts have also deepenedslightly YoY, by 1ppt/ 1-2pptsfor the offline/ online channel.FILA retail sales growth in 2Q25 was inline with expectations, inventorylevel remained stable but discounts continued to be widened.FILA retailsaleshaveincreased by MSD in 2Q25, inline with CMBIestimatesof MSD, aswell as the Company’s FY25E guidance, butslowingdown slightly vs HSD in1Q25. FILA core (offline + online)/ FILA Kids (offline + online)/ FILA fusion (offline+ online)/ E-commerce sales growthwasat HSD/ MSD/ MSD/ Low-teens. Weare still rather satisfied with FILA’s overallperformance,given the macroconditions (e.g. trade war in Apr 2025) and new categories like golf and tennisare selling quite well. Inventory to sales ratio was at 5 months in 2Q25,stayingthe same vs 5 months in 1Q25. Retail discounts have also widened YoYstrategically, by 2ppts/ 1-2pptsfor offline/ online channels, inorder to clear moreinventories during the 618 festivalin 2025.Otherbrands retail sales growth was impressive,continued to beatguidance, and discounts remained very limited in 2Q25.Other brands’ retailsales growth was at 50%-55% in 2Q25 (about 40%+/70%+/ 30%+ for Descente/Kolon/ Maia active), far ahead of the FY25E guidance and CMBIestimatesof30%+. Retail discounts for Descente and Kolonweremostly less than 10% off,as the brand stayedpopularand the trend of winter sports and outdoor remainedoverwhelming in China. All in all, for 2Q25, we believe the sales beat by the otherbrands has almost offset the sales miss by the Anta brand,andtherefore thegroup level sales growth was still at 10%+.However,sincethe retail discountscontinued to be weak for both Anta and FILA, the overall GP margin hasexperienced greater-than-expected pressure in 1H25 (may even sustain into the2H25E),and hence we are cutting our forecasts for FY25E and onwards. PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEEarnings revisionFigure1: Earnings revisionRMB mnFY25ERevenue78,500Gross profit48,674EBIT17,937Net profit att.13,307Diluted EPS (RMB)4.557Gross margin62.0%EBIT margin22.8%Net profit att. margin17.0%Source: Company data,CMBIGM estimatesFigure2: CMBIGM estimates vs consensusRMB mnFY25ERevenue78,500Gross profit48,674EBIT17,937Net profit att.13,307Diluted EPS (RMB)4.557Gross margin62.0%EBIT margin22.8%Net profit att. margin17.0%Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEOperating numbersFigure3: Sportswear brands sales growth trendSource:Company data, CMBIGM estimates, *Nike's year end is in May (e.g. 4Q18 calendar year = 2Q19 fiscal year = Sep-Nov 2018)Operating numbers1Q222Q22Nike China sales-8%-20%Adidas China sales-35%-35%Anta brand's SSSGAnta brand's retail sales+ve High-teens-ve MSD+ve MSDCore brand+ve Mid-teens-ve Low-teens+ve LSD