AI智能总结
迎峰度夏建)水电:量价齐升、)消趋势一配电网智能化:关注【威 东吴证券研究所1/182025年07月27日证券分析师袁理执业证书:S0600511080001021-60199782yuanl@dwzq.com.cn证券分析师任逸轩执业证书:S0600522030002renyx@dwzq.com.cn《甘肃容量电价回收固定成本100%,绿电运营商迎反转》2025-07-21《美国高温天气推动气价提升,欧洲储库推进气价回落,关注利润稳定的高股息标的新奥股份》2025-07-212024/11/262025/3/262025/7/24公用事业沪深300 行业走势相关研究2024/7/29 -12%-8%-4%0%4%8%12%16%20%24% 内容目录1.行情回顾..............................................................................................................................................42.电力板块跟踪......................................................................................................................................52.1.用电:2025H1全社会用电量同比+3.7%,增速恢复提升....................................................52.2.发电:2025 H1发电量同比+0.8%,火电、水电转负...........................................................62.3.电价:25年6月电网代购电价同比、环比下降....................................................................72.4.火电:动力煤港口价同比-23.02%,周环比提升11元/吨....................................................92.5.水电:三峡蓄水水位同比正常,入库/出库流量同比-22%/-55%.......................................102.6.核电:2024年已核准机组11台,核电安全积极有序发展................................................132.7.绿电:2025年1至6月,风电/光伏新增装机同比+99%/+107%......................................143.重要公告............................................................................................................................................154.往期研究............................................................................................................................................165.风险提示............................................................................................................................................17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分东吴证券研究所2/18 图表目录图1:指数周涨跌幅(2025/7/21-2025/7/25)(%).........................................................................4图2:2020至2025H1全社会累计用电量跟踪...................................................................................5图3:2020至2025H1全社会累计用电量占比结构...........................................................................5图4:2020年以来全社会累计用电量累计同比..................................................................................5图5:2020-2025H1第一产业用电量累计同比...................................................................................6图6:2020-2025 H1第二产业用电量累计同比..................................................................................6图7:2020-2025 H1第三产业用电量累计同比..................................................................................6图8:2020-2025 H1城乡居民生活用电量累计同比..........................................................................6图9:2020至2025 H1累计发电量跟踪..............................................................................................6图10:2019至2025 H1累计发电量占比结构....................................................................................6图11:2020-2025 H1总发电量累计同比............................................................................................7图12:2020-2025 H1火电发电量累计同比........................................................................................7图13:2020-2025 H1水电发电量累计同比........................................................................................7图14:2020-2025 H1风电发电量累计同比........................................................................................7图15:2020-2025 H1光伏发电量累计同比........................................................................................7图16:2020-2025 H1核电发电量累计同比........................................................................................7图17:2023至2025电网代购电价(算术平均数,元/MWh)及同比...........................................8图18:2024年9月-2025年6月电网代购电价格(元/兆瓦时)....................................................8图19:动力煤秦皇岛港5500卡平仓价同比(%)...........................................................................9图20:动力煤秦皇岛港5500卡平仓价月度均价(元/吨).............................................................9图21:2013至2025H1火电累计装机容量.........................................................................................9图22:2013至2025H1火电新增装机容量.......................................................................................10图23:2013至2024火电利用小时数................................................................................................10图24:2021-2025年三峡入库流量跟踪(立方米/秒)...................................................................11图25:2021-2025年三峡出库流量跟踪(立方米/秒)...................................................................11图26:2021-2025年水库站:三峡水位(米)跟踪........................................................................11图27:2013至2025H1水电累计装机容量.......................................................................................12图28:2013至2025H1水电新增装机容量.......................................................................................12图29:2013至2024水电利用小时数................................................................................................12图30:2015年以来中国核电机组核准情况梳理(按业主方,单位:台)..................................13图31:2013至2025 H1核电累计装机容量......................................................................................13图32:2013至2025 H1