通过公共投资加强基里巴斯的韧性：基里巴斯

IMF Selected Issues PaperAsia and Pacific DepartmentStrengthening Resilience in Kiribati with Public InvestmentPrepared by Ni Wang, George Cui, and Azar Sultanov*Authorized for distribution by Natalija NovtaJuly 2025IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on June 18, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/173.ABSTRACT:Kiribati, a collection of remote archipelagos of mostly low-lying atolls, faces significant risks fromnatural hazards and an existential risk from rising sea levels. This paper explores the critical needs for publicinvestment in climate-resilient infrastructure to safeguard the nation's long-term prosperity and assesses themacroeconomic implications of such investments. To build moderate resilience, carefully designed fiscalpolicies and enhanced public investment efficiency are needed to alleviate the fiscal burden, maximize outputgains from better infrastructure, and crowd in private investment, while maintaining debt sustainability.RECOMMENDED CITATION:George Cui, Azar Sultanov, and Ni Wang. 2025. Strengthening Resilience inKiribati with Public Investment. IMF Selected Issues Paper SIP/2025/104.E62, H54, Q54Public investment, macroeconomic modeling, debt sustainability,climate adaptation, natural disastersNWang2@imf.org, GCui@imf.org, ASultanov@imf.org JEL Classification Numbers:Author’s E-Mail Address: Keywords: Strengthening Resilience inKiribati with Public InvestmentKiribatiPrepared by Ni Wang, George Cui, and Azar Sultanov11The authors would like to thank Corinne Deléchat and Natalija Novta for their guidance, and Xuehui Han for the helpfuldiscussions. KIRIBATISELECTED ISSUESApprovedByAsia and PacificDepartmentSTRENGTHENING RESILIENCE IN KIRIBATI WITH PUBLIC INVESTMENT________2A. Introduction _______________________________________________________________________2B. The Macroeconomic Implications Of Resilience-Building Investment______________5C. Policy Discussions _________________________________________________________________9BOX1. Climate Risks in Kiribati ____________________________________________________________4FIGURES1. GDP and Debt Projections by Scenario_____________________________________________72. Private Investment by Scenario_____________________________________________________73. Comparison of Scenarios with and without Efficiency-Inducing PFM Reforms _____8References__________________________________________________________________________11CONTENTS Prepared ByNi Wang (APD),George Cui, and Azar Sultanov(both RES). 2INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDSTRENGTHENING RESILIENCE IN KIRIBATI WITHPUBLIC INVESTMENTKiribati, a collection of remote archipelagos of mostly low-lying atolls, faces significant risks fromnatural hazards and an existential risk from rising sea levels. This paper explores the critical needs forpublic investment in climate-resilient infrastructure to safeguard the nation's long-term prosperity andassesses the macroeconomic implications of such investments. To build moderate resilience, carefullydesigned fiscal policies and enhanced public investment efficiency are needed to alleviate the fiscalburden, maximize output gains from better infrastructure, and crowd in private investment, whilemaintaining debt sustainability.A. Introduction1.Kiribati mostly consists of low-lying atolls and is exposed to natural hazards.TheRepublic of Kiribati is a collection of archipelagos made of 32 atolls and one island that occupy avast area of the central Pacific Ocean. Most of the land is less than two meters above sea level andtends to have narrow long shapes. The most densely populated area in South Tarawa isapproximately 500 m wide. High exposure and sensitivity to the oceanic environment make Kiribatisusceptible to storm surges, overwash, and, over the long run, risks of inundation due to sea-levelrise. Freshwater lenses, an important water supply source for Kiribati, are vulnerable to saltwaterintrusion that can occur with storm and king tide. Overwash on the low-lying atolls can significantlyundermine the soil’s fertility and jeopardize food security.12.Kiribati’s remoteness, weak capacity, and limited economic base compound thecountry’s vulnerability to natural hazards.Kiribati is the sixth most remote country in the world.The country spans 3,441,810𝑘𝑘𝑚𝑚2of ocean (an area as large as one third of the United States) buttotal land area is equal to only 811𝑘𝑘𝑚𝑚2(similar to Singapore). Approximately half of the totalpopulation of 130,000 lives in the atoll of South Tarawa, where the capital Tarawa is located.Kiritimati Island, the largest coral atoll, is located approximately 3,000 kilometers east of Tarawa, adistance that takes about one week to cover with cargo ships. Geographical remoteness anddispersion compound the difficulties in timely delivery of disaster respon