航空与国防：2Q25预览：接近恩典状态

IndustryThe Teardown 9 Scott DeuschleResearch Analyst+1-212-250-2014Sam Desai, CFAResearch Analyst+1-212-250-9761Raquel Avila-GuilabertResearch Associate+1-212-250-9105 11July2025Aerospace&DefenseElectronicsThe TeardownChart of the WeekThis week's Chart of the Week takes a look at TTM IGT orders from Siemens Energy,split between unit orders for large gas turbines and unit orders for (smaller)industrial gas turbines. Unit order growth has been particularly strong for smallerengines. We see HWM and WWD as benefiting from this broadertrend of demandgrowth for both large and small gas turbines. CRS should also be a beneficiary, asmay ATI. We see WWD's exposure to the smaller gas turbine market as centeringprimarily on Rolls-Royce's Power Systems division, driven in part by Woodward'spast acquisition of L'Orange (see here) in 2018.Figure 1: Siemens energy gas turbine unit order trends (TTM)90Large gas turbines TTM8070605040302010FY4Q22FY1Q23FY2Q23FY3Q23FY4Q23FQ24FY2Q24FY3Q24FY4Q24FY1Q25FY2Q25Source : Siemens EnergyCommercialAerospace NewsAirIndiaCrashInvestigationFocusesOnMovementOfEngineFuelControlSwitches-"Atthispointinthe inquiry,thedataavailableto theinvestigators does not indicate a mechanical or design issue with the 787 orits two GE Aerospace GEnx-1B engines..." (The Air Current)Engine Anti-lce Testing Paces 737-10 Certification Amid Delivery Hike -"TherearesignsthattheredesignedinletcowlandEA/,oraversionofit,areprogressing well through a series ofincreasingly intensiveflighttests on the737-10....The high test rate appears to be continuing. Five flights werecompleted within the first eight days of July,all of which targeted systemsandperformancetesting."(AviationWeek)Boeing Announces Second Quarter Deliveries (Press Release)DB:Juneorderswerestrong,with116totalorders.Thisincludes54737 MAX, and 62787s.For the quarter overall, there were 427 totalorders, heavily focused on widebodies. This compares to 241 ordersin 1Q. This sequential order strength should further help thesequential FcF improvement for Boeing.We continue to see anupside case for Boeing's 2Q FCF approaching breakeven.Page 2 Industrial gas turbines TTMCS 11July2025Aerospace & Defense ElectronicsThe TeardownEU to Protect Airbus In US Trade Deal (Bloomberg / MSN)DB:ExemptionsforaviationproductswiththeEUwouldbeapositiveforRTXandGE.A/sowouldhelpBoeingforpartofitssupplychain exposure.GE Confirms Engines Again Delivered To China (Aviation Week)Delta Shares Jump 11% After Airline Reinstates 2025 Profit Outlook asCEO Says Bookings Stabilized (CNBC)Will They Strike? Boeing St. Louis Union Members Enter Next Phase OfNegotiations (Simple Flying)Airbus Delivers 63 Commercial Airplanes In June, 300+ YTD (SimpleFlying)Garuda To Purchase More Boeing Aircraft Up To 79 Units Amid U.S. TariffTalks (Indonesia Business Post)Alaska Airlines Orders 5 More Boeing 787s For Seattle Expansion & 10737 MAX 10s (Simple Flying)AirAsia Commits To 50 More A321XLRs In Long-Haul Push (AviationWeek)AirbusBagsOrderFor20MoreA330neosFromMalaysiaAirlines(SimpleFlying)China Airlines Signs Multi-Year Service Agreement with GE Aerospacefor GE9X Engines (Press Release)SkyWest, Inc. Orders GE Aerospace Engines To Power New Embraer 175Aircraft (Press Release)Inside The Airline Seat Industry Crisis Delaying Jet Deliveries - "..acomplex manufacturing jigsaw with as many as 3,000 parts from 50suppliersin15countriesneedstobemeticulouslyassembledtoproducetheluxury seat." (Reuters / MSN)Defense NewsHegseth Orders Military to "Unleash' Use of Small Drones in New Memo(Breaking Defense)House 'Chairman's Mark' Of The FY-26 Defense Policy Bill (InsideDefense)Draft Defense Bill Would Authorize Procurement Of Two Carriers, AsQuestions Of Future Viability And Delays Surround Program (lnsideDefense)Space Force Picks Boeing For $2.8B Strategic Communications Program(Defense News)DB:An importantwin for BDS's spacebusiness.Tough competitiveloss for Northrop, which we think may exert some revenue pressurefor Space Systems in 2H as development closes out.US Army Multiplies PAC-3 MSE Missile Production By Four To SupportLong-Term Air Defense Strategy (Army Recognition)Lawmakers Want Navy To Diversify Sourcing For Mk-72 And Mk-104Rocket Motors -"Increased use of SM-6s in the Red Sea has led to a surgeindemandfromcombatcommanders,accordingtothedraft"chairman'smark"ofthe [HASC's] FY26 defense authorization bill, which points to supplyDeutsche Bank Securities Inc. 11July2025Aerospace & Defense ElectronicsThe Teardownchain shortfalls for solid rocket motors. (Inside Defense)DB:RTXhasalreadymovedinthedirectionofdiversifyingawayfromLHX,grantingcontractstoNorthropandNammotodevelopMk72production lines (see here). Other startups are performing work onMk-104development.Former Air Force Chiefs Sound Alarm About Planned F-35, E-7 Cuts(Defense News)Inside Defense Obtains FY-26 Unfunded Priorities Lists (Inside Defense)US Resumes Sending Some Weapons To Ukraine After Pentagon Pause(Defense News)Pentagon Plus-Up Pushes