美国经纪商、资产管理公司与交易所2Q25另类投资预览：从边缘回归？

Restricted -External U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers & ExchangesPOSITIVEUnchangedU.S. Brokers, Asset Managers &ExchangesBenjamin Budish, CFA+12125262418benjamin.budish@barclays.comBCI, USChris O'Brien+12125269284chris.obrien@barclays.comBCI, USMason Fleming+12125267025mason.fleming@barclays.comBCI, US Px: We are relatively constructive on P10 going into earnings, particularly with expectationsaround fundraising andthetax ratenow morefully understoodbythe Street,and continuetosee shares as undervalued.STEP: STEP's diversified fundraising should prove steady, in our view, as should ongoingmomentum in private wealth should continue and while some chunkier fundraises closedrecently, the company is or will soon be back in the market with more. We also think there maybe some interesting optionality around private markets indices, though it will take some timefor this to come to fruition.Realizedvs.FREvS.InsuranceVS.Performance Feesvs.Adj. EPSVS.Street($M)StreetEarnings ($M)StreetStreetStreet($M)0%$572-1%$792-5%$2048%$1.81-3%-1%$392-5%V/NV/N$125-60%$1.07-6%0%$1,3612%V/NV/N$4291%$1.102%0%$289%E-V/NV/N$251-2%$0.925%-1%$3641%V/NV/NV/NN/A$0.212%-1%$312%V/NV/NV/NN/A$0.20-6%2%$76-5%V/NN/A$223%$0.39%8-91eC 2 Stock-Specific Quick Takes1Key Charts and Macro Indicators7C2Q25-Specific Model Guidance and Other Tidbits11Apollo Global Management, Inc.12Ares Management Corporation17Blackstone Inc..21Blue Owl Capital Inc.26The Carlyle Group Inc30P10 Inc.34StepStone Group, Inc.374 Valuation MethodologyandRisksU.S. Brokers, Asset Managers & ExchangesApolloGlobalManagement,Inc.(APO/APO)Valuation Methodology: Our price target of S168 is based on ~18x F26e adj. EPS of $9.60 and predicated on ~35x FRE/share (ex-FRPR and advisory &transaction fees; including SBC; 25x prior), 12x SRE/share (including SBC), 12x PIl/share (including SBC), 14x FRPR/share, and 15x advisory andtransaction fees/share.Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Valuation and Price Target: Key risks include macro risk related to the assetmanagement business, and liability risk related to the insurance businessAres Management Corporation (ARES/ARES)Valuation Methodology: Our price target of S200 is based on ~30x 2026e EPS of S6.63 and is predicated on 45x FRE/share (ex-FRPR and other fees,including SBC), 14x FRPR/share, and 15x RI/share.related to lighter-than-expected transacting activityBlackstone Inc.(BX /BX)Valuation Methodology: Our price target of S168 is based on ~26x F26e DE/common share, which is predicated on 60x FRE/common share (excludingFRPR; including SBC), 25x FRPR/common share, and 12x realized income/common share. Our multiple reflects BX's competitive positioning andgrowth profile.Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Valuation and Price Target: Risks include macro risk related to fundraising,deployment, and investment performance, and near-term risk related to the company's relatively larger exposures to private equity, and retail flows.transacting environment.BlueOwlCapital Inc.(OWL/OWL)Valuation Methodology: Our PT of S23 is based on ~21x FY26e adj. EPS and is predicated on 28x FRE/share (ex-Administrative, Transaction, and Otherfees, and FRPR; includes SBC), 14x Administrative, Transaction, and Other fees/share, and 12x RI shareRisks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Valuation and Price Target: Risks that may impede our PT estimate are aslowdown in capital markets, fundraising, and deployment activity, in addition to the company not reaching its LT financial targets.P10 Inc. (PX /PX)Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Valuation and Price Target: Key risks include macro risk related todeployment, fundraising, and exposure to lower middle markets, and cross-selling risk related to Px's various fund businesses.StepStoneGroup,Inc(STEP/STEP)Valuation Methodology: Our price target of s62 is based on ~26x C26e adj. EPS, which is predicated on 32x FRE/share and 12x realized income/share.Ourmultiples reflectthe company'sabove-averagegrowthprofile.fundraising and deployment, particularly related to the company's private equity business, and risk related to client attrition. Risks to the upsideinclude better-than-expected SMA and commingled fundraising, and news regarding NCI repurchases.The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG / CG)Valuation Methodology: Our price target of S64 is based on ~14x F26e DE/share, which is predicated on 22x FRE/share (ex-FRPR and transaction &advisory fees; including SBC), 14x FRPR/share, 12x transaction & advisory fees, and 12x Rl/share.Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Valuation and Price Target: Key risks include macro risk related toSource: Barclays Research10July2025 6 Key Charts and Macro IndicatorsFIGURE 3. Coverage Universe 2Q25 Performance20%15%10% -5%0%-5% --10%-15%-20%-25%[ %0-Apr-25May-25APOARESCGOWLDatafrom 4/1/25-6/30/25Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 4. Global Aggregate Fundraising