2Q25预览：偏好另类资产管理公司，其次是电子经纪商

IndustryBrokers, AssetManagers &Exchangescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmay Brian Bedell, CFAResearch Analyst+1-212-250-6600Son NguyenResearch Associate+1-212-250-9311 10July2025Brokers, Asset Managers & ExchangesBrokers, Asset Managers & ExchangesMgmt commentary remains most important this earnings seasonWhile we find mgmt. commentary on the earnings calls as typically having greatercommentary this earnings season will be nearly as important as in 1Q, althoughperhaps less so around prepared commentary and more so around investor Q&A.We can see this being the case across each sector.For the alternative managers, investors will not only be focused on the longer-termmgmt. teams expect activity to pick up in 3Q and into 4Q given the market reboundin the past two months. For the e-brokers, investors will likely focus on how mgmt.sees revenue attribution from recently-announced iRobinhood (HOOD-Buy), but also around timing of when Schwab's (SCHW-Buy)mgmt. team may enter the crypto space, and their views on the 2H25 earningsoutlook. Similarly, we expect more investor focus on the crypto ecosystem and thetokenization theme for the exchanges, especially in the wake of the recent CRCLIPO. We also think mgmt. response in the trust banks around industry consolidationwill have greater importance this quarter. For the traditional asset managers, wemay also see rising interest in newer themes, ranging from traction withinalternativestothecrypto/tokenizationecosystemBelow, we cover these themes across each subsector, as well as key positives andnegatives into 2Q results for each of our covered companies.s微信Page 2 initiatives, especially917ec at 10July2025Brokers,AssetManagers&ExchangesBrokers, Asset Managers & ExchangesMaintaining rate assumptions; higher S&P 500 levelsWithin this 2Q preview report, we maintain our macro forecasts, while marking tomarket asset returns and trading volumes for 2Q, and making relatively minorchanges to trading volume assumptions. Overall, we continue to see a backdrop ofnear-term uncertainty,albeit we view the risks of a full recession have abatedmeaningfully post the tariff announcements back in April. Our interest rateassumptions are in line with the DB Economics team, where we assume that theFed will stay on Hold until the December meeting, followed by 2 more cuts in 1Q26,(see note "Fed Notes: June FOMC recap: Ramble on hold"). This drives the FedFunds rate down to 3.50-3.75% as the terminal rate by the end of 1Q26, which weexpect will then persist throughout the remainder of our forecast horizon through2027. On the 10-year Treasury yield assumptions, we assume average quarterlyestimates gradually declining from 1Q levels of 4.46%, to 4.35% in 2Q and 4.30%in 3Q, before a slight step-up to 4.40% in 4Q. Forthe out-years, we assume a steeperyield curve with Fed Funds & 10-year yields at 3.60% and 4.40% in 2026 and 3.50%and 4.50% in 2027.For equities, we have increased our year-end 2025S&P500 level to 6,550 from6,150 prior, and our new estimate is in line with our DB equity strategy team (seenote"Investor Positioning and Flows: Just Approaching Neutral"). For quarterlycadence, we assume a 3Q retreat from the rally in June (assuming a negative 5%marketreturn),followedby+10%equityreturnin4Q.For2Q,wemarked-to-marketan equity return of positive 10% or slightly above (depending on US vs. non-USequity mix for each asset manager), and fixed income returns generally in a low-single-digit area. Forthe out years, we assume equity market returns of ~8% in both2026 and 2027, assuming market conditions improve by the end of this year or earlynext year.Regarding the S&P 500 EPS estimates, we incorporate an outlook of $267 for thisyear, which is similar to our DB equity strategy team's forecast (implying a mid-single-digit return vs. 2024's level of $253), which is higher than our $250 estimateprior, from our assumption of improved earnings growth outlook. We assume S&P500 EPS estimates of $300 (implying13%Y/Y growth)for 2026,and $324 for2027(implying 8% Y/Y growth). This effectively increases our market multiple estimateto 22.7x from 21.7x previously, which creates a positive impact to price targetsbefore any model revisions and individual company's multiple premium/discount(excluding the alternative managers due to their SOTP methodology). Lastly, wecontinue to expect fixed income total returns to be near ~4% per annum throughout2025-27For trading volumes, we saw some 2Q sluggishness across most major assetclasses, except for cash equities, which was the theme we outlined in our 1QBackdrops). In particularly, equity option and index option volumes were trendingslightly below our prior forecasts in 2Q (by 3% and 1%, respectively), while VIXfutures were trending a notable 15% below our prior estimate. European cashequities volumes were also mildly lower vs. our initial expectation. We saw CMEfuturesvolumesin2Qendedupbelowourestimatesacrosstheboard(exceptforenergy futu