美国经纪商、资产管理公司及交易所每周总结与催化剂日历

Restricted -External U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers & ExchangesPOSITIVEUnchangedU.S. Brokers, Asset Managers &ExchangesBenjamin Budish, CFA+12125262418benjamin.budish@barclays.comBCI, USChris O'Brien+1 212 5269284chris.obrien@barclays.comBCI, USMason Fleming+12125267025mason.fleming@barclays.comBCI, US : Exchanges: Exchanges 2Q25 Preview: Trading Activity Intact Despite FadingVolatility, 7/10/25. Volatility has come off April highs, with most exchanges seeing m/mdeclines, though we don't expect too many surprises in Q2, and overall we see the tradingenvironment as fairly robust.CME: Management Discussion Takeaways: Deep Dive into Spot-Quoted Futures (+Replay),7/11/25. Earlier this week, we hosted a fireside chat with CME's Tim McCourt to discuss theexchange's new spot-quoted futures. While the launch is quite new, the contracts' smaller sizeand simplicity should be additive to the retail strategy, particularly with new-to-futures traders.Crypto: R&B's Crypto Monthly: June 2025, 7/10/25. June's asset prices; global spot exchangevolumes fell m/m as well as Coinbase perps volumes fell; BTC and ETH ETFs saw net inflows;and we saw a number of corporate (including many announcements from CoiN and HooD, +CRCL IPO) and regulatory news items.TW/MKTX: IG Share Improves M/M Across TW and MKTX; TW Revs Set to Beat, MKTX a Bit Light,outperformed in HY. Transaction revs at TW look set to beat by ~1% (with a 3% beat in fixedconversational responses to users.9ec 2 Corporate NewsBlackstone saw a number of items this week, including:L&Gpartnership:On7/1o,BlackstoneandL&G (coveredbyLarissavanDeventer)announceda strategic partnership wherein L&G will source up to 10% of new annuities flows fromBlackstone IG private credit, as well as partner on public-private hybrid credit solutions.According to a comment from BX reported in the WSJ, the partnership could grow to as muchas $20B over the next 5 years. Based on expected L&G annuity flows, this implies ~s2B offlows to BX on the annuity side, and s1oB in potential asset management-related AUM overtime. For more see Strategic partnership with Blackstone from our colleague Larissa vanDeventer.: Private credit secondaries: According to an article from Bloomberg this week, Blackstone isconsidering launching a private credit secondaries strategy. The company currently has asizeable secondaries business, primarily in private equity (where the next vintage is expectedto begin inflowing later this year).: Cirsa monetization: Portfolio company Cirsa listed on the Spanish stock exchange earlierthis week, with Blackstone selling ~53M worth of shares in the initial offering.: Real estate deployment: On 7/7, Blackstone announced its Real Estate division have agreedto acquire Sunseeker Resort Charlotte Harbor for s2ooM, with the deal expected to close in3Q25.Coinbase's CEo Brian Armstrong announced on X that Coinbase has partnered with PerplexityAl to enhance the data available to crypto traders, which will come in two phases. In phase 1,Perplexity will use market data provided by COiN and integrate it into its platform to drivemarket analysis.Inphase 2,thesame marketdatathat wasprovidedbycoiNwill be usedtorespond to trader inquiries.Upcoming Events: 7/15: BLK earnings: 7/17: IBKR earnings: 7/18: SCHW earnings:7/22:CMEearnings,IVZ·7/24:AB,BX,NDAQearnings: 7/30: TW, HO0D earnings: 7/31: ICE, LPL, OWL earnings; TMX earnings release· 8/1: ARES, BEN, CBOE, TROW, TMX earnings: 8/5: APO earningsModel UpdatesBLK: Model Update, PT revised to $1,210. We revise our model which previously incorrectlycalculated total net flows, and we make an adjustment to our total non-ETF index flow figure. EPS (multipleunchangedat~23xF26EEPSof$51.76).cG: Model update, PT revised to s66. We make a few tweaks to our model which previouslyincorrectly calculated company-wide FRPR. Our estimates come up and we move our PT to S66from $64 prior on higher F26 EPS (multiple unchanged at ~14x F26 DE/share of $4.81).MKTX: Model update, PT unchanged. We are adjusting our model to correct for our GAAP taxrate, which we take down to 26.5% across our forecast from 41.5% prior. We also correct for atechnical issue where calculations throughout our model were only partial, though our F26EEPS estimate of $8.48 ($8.46 prior).5 Upside caseUSD273.00Our upside case assumes marketshare growth is more robust thanour expectations, particularly onthe rates side; the company'stechnology solutions are adoptedrobustly driving greater marketvelocity; and costs grow slower thanexpected.Downside caseUSD 141.00Our downside case assumessustained higher rates pressuringFMP and a softer macroenvironment negatively impactingvolatility; competition intensifiesand the company loses share in itscredit business, and costs increasefaster than anticipated.Upside/Downside scenariospror12mtonthsHighap/sdn296.68273.00218.97186.84141.00Lowap/suMoo8 Valuation Methodology and RisksU.S. Brokers, Asset Managers & ExchangesBlackRock Inc (BLK/BLK)Valuation Methodolog