美国另类资产管理公司：既无僵局，也无金发女孩情景

Us alternative asset managersNo gridlock, but no Goldilocks either+ With S&P500 +25% from its 2025 lows, the market seems tohave moved on from the trade gridlock fears..+ ...but some alts stocks appear to be marching towards aGoldilocks scenario, making a pause more likely, in our viewDowngrade KKR to Hold from Buy; reiterate Buy on BAM andHold on Blackstone; raise TPsGridlock to Goldilocks? Following the global trade gridlock fears in the aftermath ofthe Liberation Day announcements, equity markets appear to have moved on, withS&P500up25%from itsYTDlows.And while therearesigns of an improving exitenvironment, we think the broader macro backdrop suggests the alts industry is farfrom a Goldilocks set-up. Stocks of major alts players are up >38% on average fromtheir 2025 lows, with a c49% jump in KKR's share price being a stand-out.Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. We continue to like BAM as we think the groupremains well-placed to deliver solid,high-quality earnings growth over the near-to-medium term. BAM's AUM growth strategy centered morepn complementary fundsrather than flagship funds should make it easier to depjoy capital and drive futureexits, in our view. Reiterate Buy, raise TP to USD60.00 (from USD57.50)-Blackstone Inc. We think Blackstone's grvth in Credit and Insurance over the pastfew years has been particularly impkessive, and we expect no let-up going forward.And while the group continues uer scale its giant infrastructure platform andraise capital across various PE strategies, we think its Real Estate segment isunlikely to repeat its historical contribution to carry realizations. Additionally, we findthe consensus FRE margin trajectory for BX a bit punchy. Reiterate Hold, raise TPtoUSD153.00(fromUSD134.00)KKR & Co Inc. To be fair, there's a lot to like about the KKR story - evenly paceddeployment means less pressure on exits, negligible impact on Strategic Holdingsfrom tariffs, and a resilient KCM performance with Global Atlantic (GA) activitiesoffering further upside potential. However, we think the Street is a little too optimisticaroundKKR'sbalance sheetgainsgiventhe AssetManagementinvestmentsdo notfigure in the group's capital deployment priority list. And the recent sharp rally in theshares suggests to us that the market may need more than just a small beat on Q22025 earnings to push the stock meaningfully higher from here on. Downgrade toHold from Buy (TP USD142.00 from USD127.00).Key changes to ratings and estimatesCurrentTPRating,UpsidelMarket capCompanyTickerCurrencypricePIONewpIONewdownside(USDm)Brookfield Asset Mgmt.BAM US55.25USD57.5060.00+8.6%90.471Blackstone IncBX USUSD156.35134.00153.00-2.1%189,688KKR& Co IncKKRUSUSD137.94127.00142.00BuyploH+2.9%122,855Source: Bloomberg, HSBC estimates. Priced as of close at 08 July 2025Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. 2024-27e2026e) div yield (%)37%+13.9%0.6% Stock price performanceStocksofmajoralternativeassetmanagershaveseenastrongbouncefromtheirlowsfollowingtheLiberation Day announcements, with the share prices up >38% on average vs a nearly 25% rise inthe broader market. KKR stands out in this regard with a c49% bounce from its 2025 lows.Share price bounce for various alts players vs S&P500 from their 2025 lows (%)70%60%50%40%28.8%30.2%30%24.9%21.8%20%10%0%OWLS&P500BAMSource: LSEG DatastreamThat said, alts as a group have clearly underperformed the wider market year-to-date, with thegroup down c6% on average vs the S&P500 up c6%. However, much of this underperformancecan be attributed tothef share price weakness in Q1 2025 rather than Q2 2025. Notably, BAMis one of the orly two major alts to have registered a positive share price performance YTD.eAYear-to-date share price performance of various alts players vs S&P500 (%)微信5%10%5%%0-5%-10%-9.3%-15%-12.2%-14.9%-16.8%-20%OWLTPGAPOSource: LSEG DatastreamThe charts below show that alts, on average, were down >17% over Q1 2025 vs the S&P500down c4.5%. KKR was one of the weakest performers during Q1 2025, with shares off nearly22%. On the other hand, alts have outperformed since the start of Q2 2025, with the group up13.5% on average vs the S&P500 up nearly 11%. KKR has been one of the strongestperformers, with shares up >19%. 60.4%48.3%48.7%38.3%33.4%34.8%BXAPOTPGAlts avg.ARESKKRCG10.5%5.8%2.0%-1.1%-6.7%-6.1%BXKKRAlts avg.ARESBAMS&P500CG Brookfield Asset Management Ltd (BAM US, Buy, TP USD60.00)BAM's near-to-medium term earnings are not dependent on carry realizations, which, in itself,makes its total earnings profile more attractive versus its peers. Additionally, BAM's AUMgrowth strategy centers more on complementary funds rather than flagship funds, which shouldmake it easier to deploy capital as well as drive future exits, in our view. The backing of theparent Brookfield Corporation puts BAM in an advantageous position in this regard.Furthermore,