经纪商2Q25预览：交易活动在夏季高温中保持强劲

Restricted - External U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers & ExchangesPOSITIVEUnchangedU.s. Brokers, Asset Managers &ExchangesBenjamin Budish, CFA+12125262418benjamin.budish@barclays.comBCI, USChris O'Brien+12125269284chris.obrien@barclays.comBCI, USMason Fleming+1 212526 7025mason.fleming@barclays.comBCI, US LPL: We revise our model based on intra-quarter metrics and our now lower EPS forecast ofS4.15is4%belowthe Street.Thedailyaveragedailybalancesforthe VanguardBalancedIndexFund (VBINX -a good proxy for a balanced portfolio,in our view) was down ~3% q/q, and werevise our estimates for Advisory, Trailing Commissions, and Other Asset-Based revenuesaccordingly. Additionally, or Nll estimate for Q2 comes down based on lower-than-expectedcash balances. On the call, we look out for commentary regarding what the recent drivers oforganic NNA growth have been (given the slowdown in recent months), as well as what cashbalances are in June/trends in July.FIGURE 1.Q2 EPS/EBITDA vs.Street2Q25EBARCe EPS/EBITDAStreetvs. StreetIBKR$0.49$0.467%HOOD*$453$451%0SCHW$1.10$1.082%LPLA$4.15$4.33-4%*adj.EBITDA (SM)Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research97eC2 Stock-Specific Quick Takes.1Key Industry Themes5Interactive Brokers Group Inc.8Robinhood Markets Inc.12The Charles Schwab Corp..15LPL Financial Corp.183 Key Industry ThemesFed funds rate unchanged q/q; futures curve modestly higher through F26, lower in F27since our last update. Since our post-Q1 model updates, the rates futures curve has come upmodestly through F26, with rates across the rest of F25 up on average ~25 bps and 2026expected to be ~2 bps higher vs. the curve in late April. In Q2, the Fed remained on pause, andof cuts by YE 2025, and ~73 bps of additional cuts by YE 2026. We update our rate expectationsacross our models, and revise our interest income estimates accordingly across our brokers.FIGURE 2.Fed Fund Futures Indicate Lower Expectations for Future Rates4.752.75GZ6/30/2025Fed fund futures track Fed funds effective rateSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE3.Interest Payout MechanismCompanyThe Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)Interactive Brokers Group Inc. (IBKR)LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA)Source: Company Filings, Barclays ResearchBroader market activity points to increased levels of equity trading; slower but healthyoptions volumes. Activity across equities and options remained robust in Q2: Equities ADV rose17% sequentially and was up 56% y/y (Figure 4), and industry average daily equities notionalhealthy, and ADV is still 25% higher vs. 2Q24.Additionally, intra-quarter activity at IBKR indicates still robust activity, particularly acrossoptions and equities, which rose 2% and 3%, respectively, while futures fell 4% (despite 3%additional trading days). At HOOD (with April, May, and volumes through June 24th in hand),equities volumes are likely to rise 25% q/q, which would be a new quarterly record, whileoptionsvolumesarelikelytobeup3%q/q (alsotoarecord),thoughcryptoactivitycontinuesto slow meaningfully, and was trending down 37% q/q. Separately at SCHW, DATs are trending+2% q/q to record highs, and derivatives as a percent of DATs is slightly higher q/q. We believethe slight mix shift towards derivatives products this quarter at SCHw likely implies a slightlyhigher revenue per trade. Lastly, the lower Vix levels and mix of single-name equity options vs.popular ETF names imply HOOD's options take rate should decline 4% q/q, while intra-quarter 4/24/2025Management GuidanceChange in annualized NIl of $350M -S450M for each 25bpschangeAnnualized NIl of $50M for each 25bps cutAnnualized NIl change of $65M per each 25bps cut (US); $29Mper 25bps of cut outside the US~$35M of Annual Gross Profit change per each 25 bps ratechange5 metrics indicate the total revenue per trade at SCHW could rise 1%, and fall 6% at IBKR (noteIBKRis affectedby the SEC section31feecut tozero-whichis apass through-morebelow)FIGURE 5. Tape A, B, and C Notional ADV$900$600$500$400$300$200$100咖咖咖咖咖咖咖咖咖Source: Cboe, Barclays ResearchFIGURE6.Industry-WideOptionsADV60 725咖咖咖Source: OcC, Barclays ResearchSecuritieslendingrevenues could riseg/g.Securities lending revenues are driven much moreby demand for specific securities than the Fed funds rate.Looking to the latest IHS securitiesfinance snapshot (Securities Finance May Snapshot), revenues are 27% higher q/q acrossequities. We also note that Robinhood securities lending revenue through May (reportedmonthly) is trending 28% higher q/q, which also reads through positively for securities lendingrevenue at SCHW and IBKR. Although brokers are generally affected by the same broaderindustrytrendsforsecurities lendingrevenue,revenuetrends can vary acrossbrokersgivenhow the supply and demand of specific securities can have a large influence on revenue. Interactive Brokers Group Incthe beginning of April, though activity has moderated somewhat since. For the full quarter,activityrose Q/Qacross optionsandandequities