交易所2Q25预览：尽管波动性减弱，交易活动依然稳健

e more data consumption.Restricted -External U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers & ExchangesPOSITIVEUnchangedU.s. Brokers, Asset Managers &ExchangesBenjamin Budish, CFA+12125262418benjamin.budish@barclays.comBCI, USChris O'Brien+12125269284chris.obrien@barclays.comBCI, USMason Fleming+12125267025mason.fleming@barclays.comBCI, US MkTx:Ourestimatecomesdown3%onthebackofQ2reportedmetrics,andwearenow3%belowthe Street.We makemodel adjustments on thebackof June metrics toreflectfullquarter ADV and FPM. While we continue to anticipate that FPM should eventually increase asthe durationof bondstraded increases through the Fed's cutting cycle, we acknowledgethatgrowing PT volumes and lower fee protocols will bring some offset in FPM. The key focusmore market share in both HY and IG.NDAQ: We revise our model to reflect updated US options and equities volumes as well as indexlevels, and our Q2 EPS estimate is now in line with the Street. Industry metrics indicate USequities volumes were ahead of our model in Q2 though below for options, and our MarketServices revenueis up 7% and is now 3% aheadofthe Street.Elsewhere, werevise indexrevenues 2% higher, and are now 5% ahead of Consensus. Lastly, we make minor adjustmentsto our Financial Technology revenues in 2H25 given the more positive intra-quartercommentary.TMX: We make tweaks to our model to adjust for equity and derivative volumes, as well astrends in equity financing, and our EPS estimate for Q2 comes up 1% vs. prior, and we are nowin ahead of the Street in Q2, and given the improved equity financing statistics, we revise ourestimate for Additional Listings revenue higher (Additional Listings rev's are now well ahead ofthe Street for Q2).TW:WelowerourQ2EPS estimatewithafullquarterofdata,thougharenow1%aheadoftheStreet.Basedondisclosedmonthlymetrics,wecalculatetransactionrevenues arelikely1%ahead of the current Street estimates. Additionally, fixed revenues came in 3% ahead. Whilerevenues continue to grow nicely y/y helped in part by strong industry volume growth y/y, thereis still some broader concern, as there is with MKTx, for what mix shift means for fee rates andwhat competitive pressures could mean for FPM.FIGURE 1.Q2 Egtimates Vs. Street2Q25EeBARCe EPSStreetvs. StreetCBOE$2.42$2.431%CME$2.91$2.93-1%ICE$1.75$1.750%MRX$0.91$0.92-2%MKTX$1.88$1.93-3%NDAQ$0.80$0.800%TMX$0.52$0.505%TW$0.85$0.86-1%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research 2 Key Industry ThemesVolatility up meaningfully q/q for equities and credit on average, with large spikes in April.The ViX rose 27% q/q on average in Q2, with a particularly strong bout in volatility around thetariff announcements at the beginning on April (Figure 2) which created meaningful uncertaintyaround trade policy and the outlook for the US economy. Volatility, however, has moderated tomuchlowerlevels since, with Vix levels back in the mid-2os.Volatility levels for creditfollowedsimilar trends across IG and HY bonds (Figure 3 and Figure 4), and on average IG volatility rose4% q/q, while HY volatility rose 55%. While the volatility benefited volumes (particularly in April)across the exchanges, volatility has moderated exiting the quarter, which reads-throughsomewhat negativelyfortradingactivityheadingintoQ3.FIGURE 2.VIX Index Level6050402010忆忆忆忆忆Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE4.Cboe HYVolatility Index490 7440HY Volatility Level06634029024019014090Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchOptionsactivityslowed sequentiallyforsingle-nameequitiesand indexoptions.Datafromthe OcC indicates total options ADV fell 2% q/q in Q2 (Figure 5), with a 2% decrease across bothsingle-name equities (Figure 6) and index options (Figure 7). While the economic andgeopolitical uncertainty has been supportive for trading activity, particularly in April (alsoevidenced by trading activity across the brokers), early days in Q3 have been less volatile, andwith strong growth over the last several quarters, the industry is setup for somewhat toughcomps for further growth across both index and equity options. Separately, on-exchange 77.4 equities tradingactivity rose nicely inQ2,up 17%q/q (Figure8), which isa positivefor cashequitiesrevenuesforICE,Cboe,and NDAQFIGURE5.Total Equitiesand IndexOptionsADV (MillionADV)704.84.83.64.34.2353.652.542.439.239.6,101Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q25EquitiesIndexSource: OcC, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 7.Index Options ADV5.0≥ 4.5ADV(4.03.53.02.0咖咖咖咖咖咖咖咖咖咖咖咖咖咖咖咖咖咖咖咖Source: OcC, Barclays ResearchFIGURE8.CashEguitiesADV20181614m2咖咖咖Source: Cboe, Barclays Research CboeRevising transaction estimates lower on full Q2 ADV and preliminary RPC data; EPSestimate down 2% and in line with the Street. We revise our estimate for net transactionrevenues down by 3% based on the ADV in the quarter and preliminary RPC. Given the this data,weare now1%belowtheStreetonnettransaction revenues (thoughStreet estimateshere arelikely not up to date), and our EPS estimate of s2.41 is in line. We note the business benefitedfrom the broader vol