关税拖累才刚刚开始：中国4月数据不太可能反映关税影响，尽管关税暂时降低，但数据可能面临下行风险；我们的中国之行表明制造业活动的增长前景依然黯淡。

May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24PMI: new export ordersApr-25: PMI: imports: 43.4; PMI:new export orders: 44.7Restricted - External Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25 European Capital GoodsNEUTRALEuropean Capital GoodsTimothy Lee, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 6879timothy.lee@barclays.comBarclays, UKVlad Sergievskii+44 (0)20 7116 1117vlad.sergievskii@barclays.comBarclays, UKGeorge Featherstone, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 8585george.featherstone@barclays.comBarclays, UKJames Winchester+44 (0)20 7773 3537james.winchester@barclays.comBarclays, UKXin Wang+44 (0)20 7773 1380xin.wang@barclays.comBarclays, UKVaspaan Yazdi Avari+91 (0)22 6175 2382vaspaany.avari@barclays.comBarclays, UKUK Capital GoodsJonathan Hurn, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 0468jonathan.hurn@barclays.comBarclays, UKNeelesh Gattani+91 (0)22 6175 1816neelesh.gattani@barclays.comBarclays, UK Other key charts:•China industrial momentum index slightly edged down:Our China industrial momentum•index was +1.4 in April 2025 (preliminary figure), slightly down from +1.5 (revised withupdated data) in March 25, due to the sequential drop in PMI, exports, FAI, consumerspending and auto production.•Exports still yet to show the impact:Despite the falling PMI sub-indices, overall exports still•showed a certain degree of "resilience" in April, growing 8.1% y/y likely due to some re-routing (with exports to US / Asean at -21% / +21% y/y).•Corporate credit slump again.New RMB loans dropped by 61.6% y/y in April 2025,•suggesting continued weak sentiments on corporate investments. In the meantime, newhousehold medium- to long-term loans dropped 26.1% y/y and reversed the +ve growth inthe past two months.•Some rebound in automation:Quarterly automation components sales grew 2.4% y/y in•1Q25, the first +ve YoY growth quarterafter3Q22, due to policy and improvements in selectedend markets with reduced inventories. In the meantime, robotics sales were up 51.5% y/y inApril.•More wind turbines to go overseas:Wind power generation equipment exports was up•49.3% y/y in April 2025, extending the strength from Marchafterthe slowdown in Feb.Our key Overweights with meaningful China exposure:ROR (end-market growth/customercapex benefiting O&G, Water & Power divisions); and SXS (margin upside potential, depressedvaluation vs. peers).Our key Underweights with meaningful China exposure:KONE (weak property completion,China still over-earning, deteriorating receivables quality, unfunded dividend); RSW (limitedorder visibility, profitability headwinds); SIE (weakness in DI amid overcapacity in key endmarkets and destocking); and ABB (under-appreciated combination of cyclical and structuralautomation risks in RD&A). Barclays EU CapGoods_China industrials databook - May 25_SAed.pdf2 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Jonathan Hurn, CFA, Timothy Lee, CFA, Vlad Sergievskii, James Winchester, Xin Wang and George Featherstone, CFA, hereby certify (1) that theviews expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in thisresearch report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Research analysts employed outside the US byaffiliatesof Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Such non-US research analysts may not be associated persons of Barclays Capital Inc., which is a FINRA member, and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst’s account.Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accep