美国电力与公用事业2Q25 EPS预览：可再生能源行政令最新动态及AES并购分析

9Restricted -External U.S. Power & UtilitiesPOSITIVEUnchangedU.S. Power & UtilitiesNicholasCampanella+12125266123nicholas.campanella@barclays.comBCI, USFei She, CFA+12125268011fei.she@barclays.comBCI, USNathan Richardson+12125266244nathan.richardson@barclays.comBCI, USMichael Brown+12125264885michael.brown3@barclays.comBCI, US the current administration. For instance, there have been multiple negative Osw EOs this year,but projects including Empire Wind, Vineyard and Coastal VA Offshore wind continue to getbuilt. See more from our Clean-Tech colleagues on their interpretation of the order.More on Renewable Eo Implications: Expecting A Flurry of Safe Harbor: We think theindustry has remained quite busy into this quarter results accelerating safe harbor activities inorder to qualify for the current tax credit. In discussions with utility purchasers, the lack ofcredits does not seem to be making a major impact to long term decisions where manycompanies have noted they will still target renewables for new build with some gas additionsaround the margin. We believe for this quarter developers and utility scale rate base ownersmessage their plans are intact, but longer term we still believe the industry is working to digesttheimplications (&simplicity)addedtothecapital structure (seeourprioranalysis)whichwiltrequire higher equity content contributions all else equal and an increase in PPA prices topreserve returns. On the upcoming Treasury order expected in August, we are not expectingretroactive language, but could see tweaks to domestic content table which is provided tocolleagues note here.Themes SoFar:Budget Recon,Renewable Eo&Capacity Auction,WeatherOK:Thethemesfor the quarter are centered on the impact of budget reconciliation, while weather seems likelessofamaterialdriverandthesectorispoisedtomaintainFY25EPSacrosstheboard.ThePJMcapacity auction results for 2026/2027 will be out July 22nd which is likely to be a focus item forwatching PA given the current 2 yr session while interim solutions in NJ / IL seem much lesslikely in our view. Expectations on the auction are high and we are expecting a clear in the$270-325/MWh range. We flag ~2% EPS upside potential for PEG in 2026 / 2027 if the auctionBarclaysViewonSharesinto2QEPS&Potential Beats/Misses• AEE (In-line): wQ see a quarterly miss which could be driven by the market potentially under-apprecigting interest expense headwinds but we remain somewhat neutral into the calleCATo (In-line / slight Positive): We see likely for company to point to high end of guidancerange given historical cadence and YTD EPS execution. Quarterly estimate is a beat givenstale street consensus.: Awk (in-line) We see a slight quarterly beat which could be driven by the market under-appreciating benefits from new rates however we remain neutral into the call as well.: DTE (Positive): We see an in-line quarter in terms of financial execution, but more positiveinto the rest of the year. New CEO Harris is set up to inherit a business with positivemomentum on DC signings and an extended 45z runway aiding the financing outlook into the3Q update.: ETR (In-line): We see a slight quarterly beat which is driven by new rates, consistent loadgrowth and constructive regulatory outcomes. We expect mgmts wider LT update around 3Qwith current eco-dev progress unlikely to impact EPS communications on 2Q, in our view.: FE (In-line): We see a lighter quarter given switching to core-EPS, and full year financialHE (In-line/slight Positive): We see a quarterly beat which is driven by sales, and heat rateperformance. Admittedly the stock could trade more on funding updates though HE is make2 solid progress on future wildfire liability protections, is on track for its first fund payment, andhas recentlyseenpositive updates oncredit fromtheagencies.: NEE (Mixed): We have a small miss vs. consensus due to higher debt incurred at NEER, andwhile shares skew expensive on a SoTP, the catalyst path to us in the near term is morepositive on the backlog update and FP&L rate review. We also acknowledge sentiment hassignificantly weakened after the EO whereas we think mgmt communicates strong visibility incurrent backlog to preserve tax credit value.• PEG (Mixed): We see a miss to consensus EPS forthis quarter, mostly due to NJ ZEC phasingout and NJ distribution base rate seasonality. We do not expect nuclear deal announcementover 2Q call despite some pos momentum in PJM for DC signings.regulatory lag not being recovered during the quarter despite UTM tracker approved. Wewhich we think will bepositivefor shares.: Recent Previews: See our other recent previews including DUK, PNW, PPL$156), AWK (Underweight, PT to $128 from $138), DTE (Equal Weight, PT to $136 from $137),ETR (Overweight, PT to $87 from $91), FE (Equal Weight, PT unchanged at S43), HE (Equalto $82 from $83), SRE (Equal Weight, PT to $71 from $72)3 AES Catches the M&A Bug: Initial Thoughts2Q25Previews8AmerenCorp (AEE)2Q25Preview.8Atmos Energy (ATO):