北美航空公司2Q25预览：高油价与持续疲软的美国休闲需求抑制盈利前景

Restricted - External North America AirlinesPOSITIVEUnchangedNorth America AirlinesBrandon R. Oglenski+12125268903brandon.oglenski@barclays.comBCI, USJohn Dorsett+1 212 526 8487john.dorsett@barclays.comBCI, USEric Morgan, CFA+12125269642eric.morgan@barclays.comBCI, USDavid Zazula, CFA+12125265108david.zazula@barclays.comBCI, US Forthenetworkairlines,thefocusduringearningswilllikelybeonthepotentialforreinstatedFY25guidanceaswellascommentaryoninternational,corporateandpremiumtravel demand. With Delta earnings coming this morning, please see our note from yesterdayhere:“Delta: 2Q25, Preview" For United results, the airline is leading industry capacity growththis summer (see 3Q and 4Q scheduled growth in Figures 10 and 11), which could negativelyimpact the carrier's unit revenue outlook for the third quarter (we forecast UAL 3Q25 TRASMdown 1.0%, see Figure 7). We suspect the combination of Newark market-related challengesearlierinthe secondquarter(see:“Newark is (Not)NewYork")alongwithahigherjetfueloutlookfor2H25couldleadtoalowerFY25range.American'soutlookcouldalsomovelowerwith the recent move higher in jet fuel prices, but we suspect investors will be more focused onthe carrier's continued share recapture of corporate travel demand. Looking into 2026,American should also benefit from a new co-brand card agreement with Citi.Low cost and low fare airlines likely facing continued profit and yield challenges asdomestictraveldemandremainssubdued;Southwestrevenueoutlookwillbeinfocusgiventhe recent additionofbagfees and basicfares.Weexpect the most negative unitrevenue outlook for the third quarter could come from JetBlue given leisure demand challengesin coastal markets relative to higher competitive capacity, as well as prior year tailwinds fromcompetitor share spill during the CrowdStrike outage. For Alaska, updates on the Hawaiianintegration will be the focus, with Hawaii markets likely to continue outperformance for theWest Coast-focused carrier. We see a relatively strong third quarter revenue outlook comingfrom Southwest, as the airline first implemented bag fees and basic fares at the end of May,which is likely to drive some favorable impact on third quarter revenue outcomes anddrive higher yields through bundled fares will likely be at least partially offset by weaker leisuredemand as well as competitive growth from carriers such as United. We highlight Sun Countryas a likely earnings standout in late 2025 as increased contract Amazon flying at higher marginsbecomes a greater mix of revenue for the Minneapolis based carrier.demand,lissectthirdquarterunitrevenueoutlooksandreviewcurrentbackhalf2o25sche@uled capacity. See the following page for details on the remainder of the note.c2 North America Airlines: 2Q25, PreviewPlease see Figure 1 and 2 for our key considerations for each airline ahead of earnings aswell as our summary earnings revisions. Our revised estimates reflect a continued weakdomestic leisure demand backdrop in the US as well as higher jet fuel prices.Demand improvement not yet clearly visible given continued TSA headcount declines andlackluster Barclaycard spend data. Please see Figures 3-5. US TSA security checkpointthroughputis flat in July relativeto2o24,slightly betterthan trends in the second guarter withoff-peak demand representing the largest negative variance. Although we note Barclaycard dataon airlines and travel agency spend does not have a great historical correlation with US airlinerevenue outcomes, we note recent spending trends in late June were less negative compared toearlier periods, but remain well below 2024 levels. Although lagged, most US airline load factorswere down low-to-mid single-digits in March reflective of softer domestic leisure demand.We provide three charts on expected 3Q25 unit revenue outlooks for each carrier. Pleasesee Figures 6-8. Delta should benefit in the third quarter from last year's CrowdStrike impact,which could also represent a headwind to other carriers such as JetBlue who benefited lastmostly negative unit revenue outlook for the third quarter. Bucking the trend, Southwest shouldbenefitfrom newbagfeesandbasicfares,whichwent on saleinthesecond quarter.Current3Q25schedulesshowindustrydomesticcapacitygrowthat30bps,while4Qremainsmostlyunreliable(butup+2.5%atpresent).PleaseseeFigures9-11formonthlyUScapacity, 3Q25 summary and 4Q25 summary scheduled capacity growth from schedules currentas of July 4th. We note United growth remains industry leading and 4Q schedules remainare likely to trim in the coming months. 3 North America Airlines: 2Q25 Key Considerations andEstimate RevisionsNorth America Airlines 2Q25 Preview (Industry View: Positive; OW = Overweight; EW = Equal Weight; UW = Underweight) /12025EKeys for Stock$4.70Leading off airlineresults, DAL sets the tone forall; we see total unitrevenues in 3Q down 1% year-over-year (including one point$5.35of favorable tailwind from CrowdStrike) on capacity up 3% which could stretch to +4%, with intern