世界铂金投资协会-2025年第一季度白金季度

FOREWORD This edition ofPlatinum Quarterlypresents platinum supply and demand developments for the first quarter of 2025 and an updatedforecast for full year 2025. It also provides WPIC’s views on relevant issues and trends for investors considering exposure toplatinum as an investment asset, plus an update on how we continue to meet investors’ needs through our product partnerships.ThePlatinum Quarterlydata and commentary (starting on page 5) are prepared independently for WPIC by Metals Focus. Platinum is expected to remain in its third consecutive year of market deficit in 2025f. A significant focus of the first quarter of 2025was the potential for evolving US trade policies, tariffs in particular, to not only directly disrupt the flow of PGMs into the US but alsoindirectly impact PGMs through softening global economic activity. While recognising the heightened forecast risks related to tariffsand ongoing trade discussions, the aggregate impact on platinum markets in this update to our 2025 outlook is relatively minimal,and is reflected through moderated global automotive production and jewellery imports into the US, offset by the flow of metal intoNYMEX exchange stocks which is captured within investment demand. Notably, the forecast platinum market deficit of 966 koz in2025 represents a significant 12% of projected demand, and thus it is unlikely that deficits would substantially erode this even if asharp escalation in trade-related economic headwinds arises. Platinum market enters its third year of substantial deficits •The platinum market is expected to record a deficit of 966 koz this year, which follows a 992 koz deficit in 2024. The forecastplatinum market deficit for 2025 has been increased from the 848 koz reported in the March 2025Platinum Quarterlyprimarily dueto upward revisions in global platinum demand. •Supply risks remain a prominent theme in 2025. In Q1 2025, mining supply declined by -13% year-on-year to record its lowestoutput since Q2 2020 which was in the height of COVID lockdowns. While mining should benefit from improved processingcapacity availability over the rest of the year, refined output is still expected to be 6% lower in 2025, which in terms of total supplyis partially offset by a 3% year-on-year rise in recycling in 2025. Nonetheless, a -4% year-on-year reduction in total platinum supplyin 2025 perpetuates the ongoing structural erosion of platinum supply (-1.2% CAGR since 2015). •Total platinum demand is expected to decline by -4% year-on-year in 2025. While risks to international trade have drawn significantfocus in the first quarter, lower demand in 2025 is largely due to a cyclical trough in glass demand where capacity additions haveslowed in China. Sectors such as automotive, jewellery and investment are arguably more sensitive to short-term shifts in tradepolicies. However, lower automotive demand and jewellery production for export to the US have been offset by upward revisionsto Chinese jewellery and investment demand. Accordingly, total 2025 platinum demand is revised up by +115 koz since our March2025Platinum Quarterly. The platinum investment case – sifting through the geopolitical noise Platinum’sinvestment case remains compelling,with the market entering its third consecutive year of projected deficits.Against this backdrop, however, evolving US trade policy has heightened economic uncertainty. The Trump administration hasannounced, implemented, backtracked and renegotiated on a wide swathe of tariffs since November 2024. Below, we outline theimpacts of the market response to tariff fears, improved tariff certainty, indirect tariff risks to platinum demand, and the potentialimpact of tariff risk escalation. The spectre of US tariffs initially appeared all encompassing at the start of 2025. Markets pre-emptively responded to the risk ofplatinum imports being tariffed, resulting in a flow of metal into the US and into exchange stocks with NYMEX stocks rising by 361 kozto 631 koz through the first quarter. In the first quarter of 2025 the implied exchange for physical (EFP) spread peaked at aroundUS$65/oz, while lease rates spiked to 13% from around 1% in last quarter of 2024. The detailed announcement of tariffs on 2nd April 2025 offered more clarity on how platinum would be impacted by US tariffs.As things stand, the majority of platinum imports (sponge, grain, ingot etc.) are exempt from tariffs as platinum is considered acritical strategic mineral. Manufactured products that contain platinum (catalysts, washcoats etc.) are subject to tariffs, as are mintedplatinum products that are not classified as legal tender. In effect, bullion coins are exempt, but minted platinum investment barsare subject to tariffs. As a large proportion of US minted bar supply is imported from Switzerland, this is unhelpful for investmentdemand in the US. Although US bar and coin demand is projected to increase by 21 koz year-on-year in 2025, the updatedPlatinum Quarterlyou