生物燃料专题报告：美国生物燃料新政落地，市场影响几何
研究院能源化工组研究员潘翔0755-82767160panxiang@htfc.com从业资格号：F3023104投资咨询号：Z0013188康远宁0755-23991175kangyuanning@htfc.com从业资格号：F3049404投资咨询号：Z0015842投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 目录内容摘要............................................................................................................................................................................................1美国生物燃料政策框架.....................................................................................................................................................................3可再生燃料标准（Renewable Fuel Standard, RFS）..............................................................................................................3掺混税收抵免（Blending Tax Credit, BTC）..........................................................................................................................32022年通胀削减法案（Inflation Reduction Act, IRA）.........................................................................................................4RIN机制及历史交易价格复盘.................................................................................................................................................4美国生物燃料政策近期动态.............................................................................................................................................................745Z税收抵免修正案.................................................................................................................................................................72026-2027RVO提议..................................................................................................................................................................8新政对美国生物燃料市场供需的影响.............................................................................................................................................9主要生物燃料简介....................................................................................................................................................................9燃料乙醇市场：步入饱和期..................................................................................................................................................10生物质柴油：RD成为主导，BD逐渐式微..........................................................................................................................11可持续航煤：发展空间巨大，但政策尚不明朗..................................................................................................................13图表图1:RIN编码分类和嵌套关系........................................................................................................................................................5图2:RIN生命周期............................................................................................................................................................................5图3:各合规年度生成RINS注销量（RETIREMENT）.....................................................................................................................5图4:2010-2020年RIN周度加权平均价格.....................................................................................................................................6图5:2021至今RINS交易结算价.....................................................................................................................................................8图6:2010-2027RVO目标设置.........................................................................................................................................................8图7:美国燃料乙醇产销量..............................................................................................................................................................11图8:美国燃料乙醇原料来源占比..................................................................................................................................................11图9:美国生物柴油产销量..............................................................................................................................................................12图10:美国可再生柴油产销量........................................................................................................................................................12图11:豆油制生物柴油理论生产毛利（BOHO因子）................................................................................................................13图12:美国生物柴油原料来源占比................................................................................................................................................13图13:美国其他生物燃料产量和SAF估算产能...........................................................................................................................13图14:美国SAF远期目标...............................................................................................................................................................13表1:2025年中东欧天然气供应的主要来源|单位：BCM................................................................................错误!未定义书签。表2:欧洲天然气供需平衡表基线情景|单位：BCM.........................................................................................错误!未定义书签。 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明2/15 请仔细阅
