德国央行月报——2025年6月

Vol. 77 No 6 Table of Content Forecast for Germany: US tariffs initially weigh on economic growth;fiscal policy provides impetus with a delay. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 1 Key aspects of the macroeconomic outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 2 Risk assessment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 The potential impact of a more restrictive US trade policy on the Germaneconomy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 3 More detailed information on the Forecast for Germany. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 4 List of references. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Review of the operational framework for implementing monetarypolicy: outlook for the Eurosystem balance sheet and structural operations61 1 Implementing monetary policy in the euro area: instruments andframework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 2 Excess liquidity resulting from non-standard monetary policy measures. . . 67 What role can central bank reserves play in monetary policy transmissionvia the banking system?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 3 Changes to the operational framework for implementing monetary policyin 2024. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 4 Key aspects for the review in 2026. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 5 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 List of references. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Early, standard, late: when insurees retire and how pension benefitreductions and increases could be determined. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 1 Minimum ages in the pension insurance scheme are a key factor in wheninsurees choose to retire. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1022 Pension policy discussion and the new Federal Government’s plans. . . . . . 1043 Calculating benefit reductions and increases for early or late retirement. . 107On what assumptions are neutral pension benefit reductions and increasesbased?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121Adverse selection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1224 Benefit reductions and increases: conclusions and reform options. . . . . . . . 124List of references. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128Statistical Section. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 Forecast for Germany:US tariffs initially weighon economic growth;fiscal policy providesimpetus with a delay The recovery of the German economy is being delayed by the turmoil caused by internationaltrade policy. Only gradually will economic activity be boosted by additional fiscal measures. The newtariffs and the uncertainty surroundingpolicy are set to weigh on economicUSUSgrowth both this year and the next. In connection with this, the rise inwill be weakenedGDPby the imposed tariffs themselves and the associated general uncertainty. By the end of2027, macroeconomic growth is estimated to be around ¾ percentage point lower solely onaccount of these factors. From next year onwards, the expansionary fiscal policy stance will contribute to thesignificant economic recovery that is set to begin then. The demand effects from increaseddefence and infrastructure spending are estimated to support the cumulative incr