德国央行月度报告 2025年11月

Vol. 77 No 11 Table of Content Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1 Global economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71.1 Global economy remains resilient. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71.2 Disinflation process stalls. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 Financial market environment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92.1 Growing risk appetite in the financial markets despite recurring uncertainties. . . 92.2 Euro depreciates slightly against the US dollar despite narrowing interest ratespread between the currency areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 Monetary policy and banking business. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113.1 ECB Governing Council leaves key interest rates unchanged again. . . . . . . . . . . . 113.2 Lending to the domestic private sector increases only moderately. . . . . . . . . . . . 114 German economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124.1 German economy stagnant in the third quarter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124.2 Labour market remains subdued, wage growth generally weakening. . . . . . . . . 134.3 Inflation rate still somewhat above 2 %. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144.4 Economic output could increase slightly in the fourth quarter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 Public finances. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165.1 Rising deficit and debt ratios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165.2 Gear fiscal rules to sound government finances again. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Global and European setting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 1 Global economy remains resilient. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201.1 Economic slowdown in China, government continues to focus on industry. . . . . 241.2 Mixed trends in other emerging market economies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Russia’s economy is sending crisis signals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 1.3 US economy remains in robust shape. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301.4 Japanese economy faces setback. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321.5 Growth in the United Kingdom continued to lose momentum. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331.6 Polish economy continued to grow strongly. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332 Subdued economic momentum in the euro area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Bibliography. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43Monetary policy and money market developments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441 Monetary policy and money market developments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 452 Monetary developments in the euro area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 473 German banks’ deposit and lending business with domestic customers. . . . 53List of references. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60Financial markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 611 Financial market setting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 621.1 Growing risk appetite in the financial markets despite recurring uncertainties. 621.2 Euro depreciates slightly against the US dollar despite narrowing interest ratespread between the currency areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 622 Exchange rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 643 Securities markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 673.1 Bond market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 673.2 Equity market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72List of references. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .