德国央行月度报告——2026年7月（英）

Vol. 78 No 7 Table of Content Commentary: German economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 What contribution has diminished price competitiveness made to therecent weakness in German exports?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 How is the relationship between price competitiveness and exportsestimated?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Can indicators of price competitiveness explain differences in export levelsin an international comparison?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 3 How much of a drag on Germany’s exports has been caused by thedeterioration in price competitiveness?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 List of references. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 US tariffs and geoeconomic fragmentation: implications for the globaleconomy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 2 The economic impact of the new US tariffs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 2.1 Effects on the United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 2.2 Global effects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Model-based estimates of the global impact of US tariffs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Possible tariff-induced diversions of Chinese exports to the EU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 2.3 Potential long-term repercussions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Bureaucratic burdens in Germany’s corporate sector: causes and effects..79 1 Regulation has important functions, but also entails a bureaucraticburden. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 822 Bureaucracy is a significant cost factor for enterprises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 853 Areas with increased compliance costs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 894 Regulatory burden by international standards. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 925 Potential synergies with other areas for reform. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94The empirical relationship between bureaucracy costs and other locationfactors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 976 The impact of increased bureaucracy on firms’ investment,competitiveness and productivity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100The empirical relationship between bureaucracy costs and the productivityof German enterprises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1037 Economic policy conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106List of references. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108Statistical Section. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112 Commentary: Germaneconomy 1 German economy withstanding headwinds Economic output in Germany is likely to have risen somewhat in the second quarterof 2026.In spite of headwinds created by the war in the Middle East, realis likelyGDPto have increased somewhat in the second quarter of 2026 after seasonal adjustment.Industrial activity remained resilient. This is borne out by the data available for Apriland May. Industry is benefiting from dynamic foreign demand and growing exports.Consumers were relatively unaffected by the high energy prices and associated lossesin purchasing power, and look to have kept their consumer spending at least stable.Finally, expansionary fiscal policy is supporting economic activity. Overall, the currentpicture painted by the indicators suggests a somewhat higher underlying pace ofeconomic growth than was expected in the Bundesbank’s June Forecast for Germany.There are also temporary factors supporting growth. The data available to date showthat real imports of goods were weak, probably as a result of the war in Iran.Inaddition, German exporters may have benefited from the fact tha