德国央行月度报告 2026年5月

Vol. 78 No 5 Table of Content Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Global economy and international financial markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71.1 Global economy under fresh strain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71.2 Increase in inflation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71.3 Financial markets shaped by the Iran war. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 Monetary policy and banking business. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92.1 ECB Governing Council leaves key interest rates unchanged. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92.2 Lending in the euro area remains on an upward path. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 German economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103.1 German economy robust at start of year. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103.2 Further deterioration in labour market, weaker wage growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113.3 Inflation rate remains elevated due to ongoing war in the Middle East. . . . . . . . 113.4 In the second quarter, economic activity is likely to stagnate as a result of thewar in Iran. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 German public finances. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144.1 Expansionary spending stance is increasing deficit significantly. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144.2 Fiscal rules require adaptation measures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154.3 Important reforms are on the agenda. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Global and European setting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 Global economy under fresh strain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Similarities and differences between the energy crises of 2021/22 and 2026. 211.1 Stronger growth in China amid flourishing foreign trade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281.2 Diverging trends in other emerging market economies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291.3 US economic activity remains robust. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 1.4 Japan’s economic output is likely to have risen moderately. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 List of references. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Financial markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 3.2 Equity market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 List of references. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 The German economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 1 German economy robust at start of year. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 4 Wage growth weaker in the first quarter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 5 Inflation rate remains elevated due to ongoing war in the Middle East. . . . 101 6 In the second quarter, economic activity is likely to stagnate as a result ofthe war in Iran.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 List of references. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 Public finances. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 1 General government budget Chapter 1 relates to data from the nationalaccounts and Maastricht debt. It is followed by reporting on budgetarydevelopments (government finance statistics) and budget planning.. . . . . . . 116 1.3 Major reforms planned. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 2.1 Low growth in the first quarter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 3 Central government finances. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 3.1 First quarter of 2026. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 5 Social security funds. . . . . . .