有色金属行业周报（20250623-20250627）：降息预期升温，金属价格上行

有 色 金 属2025年06月29日推荐（维持）证券分析师：马金龙邮箱：majinlong@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360522120003证券分析师：刘岗邮箱：liugang@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360522120002证券分析师：李梦娇邮箱：limengjiao@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360525040002行业基本数据占比%股票家数(只)125总市值(亿元)29,558.68流通市值(亿元)25,700.41相对指数表现%1M6M绝对表现9.1%15.3%22.7%相对表现7.0%16.7%相关研究报告《有色金属行业周报（20250616-20250620）：刚果金出口禁令延期，钴价或反转》2025-06-22《有色金属行业周报（20250609-20250613）：宏观情绪改善叠加持续降库，铝价有所支撑》2025-06-15《有色金属行业周报（20250602-20250606）：美国铜铝关税政策催化，多因素驱动贵金属大幅上涨》2025-06-0824/0624/0924/1125/0225/042024-06-27~2025-06-27有色金属沪深300华创证券研究所 -12%0%12%23% 0.022.943.2612M9.2%25/06 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号目录一、本周行情回顾................................................................................................5二、铝行业重要数据追踪......................................................................................5（一）生产数据....................................................................................................5（二）库存数据....................................................................................................7（三）毛利...........................................................................................................7（四）进出口.......................................................................................................8（五）表观消费量................................................................................................8（六）现货交易....................................................................................................9（七）下游开工情况.............................................................................................9（八）上游运行情况...........................................................................................101、铝土矿情况................................................................................................102、氧化铝情况................................................................................................11（九）宏观库存周期...........................................................................................12三、铜行业重要数据追踪....................................................................................12（一）生产数据..................................................................................................12（二）库存数据..................................................................................................13（三）下游开工情况...........................................................................................14（四）进出口.....................................................................................................15（五）实际消费量..............................................................................................15（六）冶炼数据..................................................................................................16四、小金属数据跟踪...........................................................................................16（一）锡行业数据..............................................................................................16（二）锑行业数据..............................................................................................17五、风险提示.....................................................................................................17 2 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号图表目录图表1本周金属价格涨跌.........................................................................................5图表2中国电解铝开工产能（万吨）........................................................................5图表3中国电解铝日均产量（万吨）........................................................................5图表4中国电解铝日度产量（万吨）........................................................................6图表5中国电解铝运行产能（万吨）........................................................................6图表6全球电解铝日均产量（万吨）........................................................................6图表7北美洲电解铝日均产量（万吨）....................................................................6图表8西欧+中欧电解铝日均产量（万吨）...............................................................6图表9俄罗斯+东欧日均产量（万吨）......................................................................6图表10国内电解铝社会库存（万吨）......................................................................7图表11 SHFE电解铝库存（万吨）...........................................................................7图表12 LME全球铝库存（万吨）............................................................................7图表13中国电解铝吨铝利润（元/吨）.....................................................................7图表14进口盈亏（元/吨）.......................................................................................8图表15原铝净进口量（万吨）.................................................................................8图表16铝材净出口量...............................................................................................8图表17铝材出口量..................................................................................................8图表18铝表观消费量...............................................................................................8图表19国内日均铝表观消费量（万吨）...................................................................8图表20 A00铝升贴水（元/吨）.....................................................