赞比亚：加强现金预测的技术援助报告2025

ZAMBIA Strengthening Cash Forecasting January 2025 Prepared ByDavit Gamkrelidze Authoring Departments/Institutions: Fiscal Affairs Department The contents of this document constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the InternationalMonetary Fund to the authorities of the Ministry of Finance and National Planning of Zambia (the "CDrecipient") in response to their request for technical assistance. Unless the CD recipient specificallyobjects to such disclosure, this document (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof may be disclosed bythe IMF to the IMF Executive Director for Zambia, to other IMF Executive Directors and members of theirstaff, as well as to other agencies or instrumentalities of the CD recipient, and upon their request, toWorld Bank staff, and other technical assistance providers and donors with legitimate interest members ofthe Steering Committee of Debt Management Facility (seeStaff Operational Guidance on theDissemination of Capacity Development Information). Publication or Disclosure of this report (in whole orin part) to parties outside the IMF other than agencies or instrumentalities of the CD recipient, World Bankstaff, other technical assistance providers and donors with legitimate interest members of the SteeringCommittee of Debt Management Facility shall require the explicit consent of the CD recipient and theIMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department. The analysis and policy considerations expressed in this publication are those of IMF’s Fiscal AffairsDepartment. This technical assistance (TA) was provided with financial support from Debt Management Facility Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations _________________________________________________4 Executive Summary _________________________________________________________6 I. Introduction ______________________________________________________________9 II. Current situation ________________________________________________________10A. Budget credibility ___________________________________________________10 B. Cash Forecasting___________________________________________________11C. Banking Arrangements and IFMIS Rollout ________________________________13D. TSA Structure and Liquidity Challenges __________________________________14 III. Options for Improvement _________________________________________________17A. Addressing Weaknesses for Effective Operationalization of the CMU ___________17B. CFAT Implementation _______________________________________________19 Boxes Box 1: Phases of CFAT Adoption in Zambia ___________________________________________20 Figures Figure 1. Cash Surplus/Deficit, 2023-2024 (in ZMW million) _______________________________10Figure 2. Comparison of Revenue Projections with Actuals________________________________13Figure 3. Comparison of Expenditure Projections with Actuals _____________________________13Figure 4. Summary of Commercial Bank Account Balances _______________________________17Figure 5. Summary of Number of Bank Accounts________________________________________17 Tables Table 1: Summary of Key Recommendations ___________________________________________8Table 2. Budget Execution - Statement of Comparison: Budget and Actual Amounts (in ZMW ____11 Annexes Annex 1. List of MPSAs (head-offices) currently covered by IFMIS__________________________23 Acronyms and Abbreviations BOBudget OfficeBoZBank of ZambiaCDFConstituency Development FundCFATCash Flow Forecasting and Analysis ToolCMCCash Management CommitteeCMUCash Management UnitFYFiscal YearDMODebt Management OfficeIFMISIntegrated Financial Management Information SystemMoFNPMinistry of Finance and National PlanningMPSAMinistry, Provinces and other Spending AgencyOAGOffice of the Accountant GeneralPFMPublic Financial ManagementSLAService Level AgreementSTSecretary to the TreasuryTATechnical AssistanceTSATreasury Single AccountZMWZambian KwachaZRAZambia Revenue Authority Preface In response to a request from the Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MoFNP) in Zambia, the FiscalAffairs Department (FAD), through an STX, fielded a capacity development technical assistance mission toLusaka from January 13 to 24, 2025. The purpose of the mission was to assist the Zambian authorities instrengthening cash flow forecasting processes and preparing the cash flow forecast for Fiscal Year (FY) 2025.The mission was conducted by Mr. Davit Gamkrelidze, an FAD expert and involved close collaboration withofficials from the Office of the Accountant General (OAG) and the Budget Office (BO) within MoFNP. During the mission, meetings were held with Ms. Nsandi Manza, Accountant General and other key officialsfrom the OAG, including Ms. Emmy S. Chenguluka, Director of Treasury Services; and Mr. Brighton Simutowe,Acting Chief Accountant for Treasury Services. In the BO, the mission engaged with Mr. Willis Chipango,Director of the BO, Mr. Patrick Hara, Senior Budget Analyst, Mr. Robbie Kasuba, Senior Budget Analyst; Mr.Mukoba Mbulakulima, Senior Budget