乌克兰：加强宏观经济建模以支持乌克兰国家银行（NBU）预测和政策分析系统（FPAS）的技术援助报告

UKRAINE Strengthening Macroeconomic Modeling inSupport ofForecasting and Policy Analysis July 2025 Prepared ByIaroslav Miller, Daniel Baksa, Mariia Sydorovych, Natan Epstein (ICDMM) Authoring Department: Institute for Capacity Development DISCLAIMER The contents of this report constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the International MonetaryFund (IMF) to the authorities ofUkraine(the “CD recipient”) in response to their request for capacitydevelopment (CD). This report (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof may be disclosed by the IMF toIMF Executive Directors and members of their staff, as well as to other agencies or instrumentalities ofthe CD recipient, and upon their request, to World Bank staff, and other CD providers anddonorswith Table ofContents Acronyms and Abbreviations....................................................................................................................2 Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................4 Overview of the first year of the NBU FPAS TA Project..........................................................................5 A.Scopingmissionfindings.........................................................................................................................5B.Objectives and status of the NBU FPAS TA Project...............................................................................8C.Developing analytical tools and building technical capacity....................................................................9D.Integration of FPAS into internal processes and external communications..........................................11 References.................................................................................................................................................14 Acronyms andAbbreviations BOP…………………CPI…………………..EUR……………...….Balance of PaymentsConsumer Price IndexIMFEuropeanDepartmentFPAS......…………...Forecasting and Policy Analysis SystemICD.........…………...ICDMM………………IMF……...…………...MMFD……………….IMF Institute for Capacity DevelopmentICDMacro-Modeling and Monetary divisionInternational Monetary FundMacroeconomic modeling and forecasting DivisionMPC…………………MPEAD……………...Monetary Policy CommitteeMonetary Policy and Economic Analysis Department Preface At the request of theNational Bank of Ukraine(NBU),aTechnical Assistance (TA)Project onStrengtheningMacroeconomic Modeling in Support of FPAS at the NBUwaslaunchedby ICDinMay2024.Atotal offourin-personmissionswere conductedin FY25(all held in Vienna, Austria), andregular virtual office hours inbetween the missions.The projectfocusedontwobroad andcomplementary workstreams: (i)reviewing During the scoping missionin May 2024,the TA teamreviewed existing NBU FPAS processes andidentifiedareas for strengtheningmodeling andFPAS practices intwobroad categories: (i)forecastingandmodeling capacity; and (ii)organization of modeling and forecasting processes.By the end of the first yearofthe FPAS TA projectthe NBUmodelingteammaderemarkable progressincapacity development,includingindata management,macroeconomicmodeling andcoding. The existing QPM model has beenreviewed, recalibrated and extended to better reflect key features oftheUkrainian economy and improvethe analysis ofpolicy trade-offsinanenvironment ofexceptionally high uncertaintydue to the ongoing TheIMFTA projectteam consistsofNatan Epstein,Iaroslav Miller,Daniel Baksa,MariiaSydorovych (allICDMM),andKarel Musil(short-term expert).During the in-person missions, the TA team met regularlywithDr. Sergiy Nikolaychuk,who at the time held the position of Deputy Governor and now serves as theFirst Deputy Governor,andthe Director of the Monetary Policy Department,Volodymyr Lepushynskyiand Executive Summary Thefirst year of the multi-year NBU FPAS TA Project focused on two broad and complementaryworkstreams: (i) reviewing the existing NBU’s QPM, further developing the QPM and strengtheningmodelingand forecastingcapacity; and (ii) reviewing existing FPAS processes andfurtherintegration ofmodel-based analytical work into NBU’s policymakingand communications.Startingin May 2024,four in- The TAproject achieved significant progress along the QPM and modeling capacity developmentworkstream. The existing QPM has been reviewed, recalibrated and extended to better reflect key featuresoftheUkrainian economy and improve policy trade-off analysis in the environment ofexceptionally highuncertainty due to the ongoing Russian invasion. In particular, the model was extended(i)with relativepricesblockto better interpret distinct core and non-core drivers of inflation;(ii) more detailed monetarypolicyblock toallowa more comprehensive assessment of policy trade-offsunder InflationTargetingwithincrease in exchange rate and capital flowmanagementduringthe ongoing war;and(iii) decomposition ofthe GDP into agricultural and non-agricultural s