汤加：技术援助报告宏观经济框架汤加国家储备银行关于开发预测和政策分析系统的技术援助

TONGAMacroeconomic FrameworksTechnical Assistance (TA) on Developing a Forecastingand Policy Analysis System (FPAS) at the June2025 Prepared ByCeline Rochon(ICDFP) Authoring Department: Institute for Capacity Development DISCLAIMER The contents of this report constitute technical advice provided by thestaff of the International MonetaryFund (IMF) to the authorities of Tonga (the “CD recipient”) in response to their request for capacitydevelopment (CD). This report (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof may be disclosed by the IMF toIMF Executive Directors and members of their staff, as well as to other agencies or instrumentalities ofthe CD recipient, and upon their request, to World Bank staff, and other CD providers and donors withlegitimate interest, unless the CD recipient specifically objects to such disclosure (seeOperational The analysis and policy considerations expressed in this publication are those of the Institute for Capacity Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations .................................................................................................................... 2 Preface ......................................................................................................................................................... 3 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 4 Section I. Overview of the NRBT FPAS TA Project ................................................................................. 5 A.Role of forecasting/nowcasting and FPAS in conducting forward-looking monetary policy.................... 5B.Objectives of the NRBT Macroeconomic Frameworks FPAS TA Project ............................................... 6C.Developing analytical tools and building technical capacity .................................................................... 7D.Integration of tools into internal processes and external communications .............................................. 8 A.Mission 1: November 2021 (virtual) ....................................................................................................... 10B.Mission 2: May 2022 (virtual) ................................................................................................................. 10C.Mission 3: July 2022 (virtual) ................................................................................................................. 10D.Mission 4: October 2022 (virtual)........................................................................................................... 11E.Mission 5: November 2022 (virtual) ....................................................................................................... 11F.Mission 6: February 2023 (in-person).................................................................................................... 11G.Mission 7: September 2023 (virtual) ...................................................................................................... 12H.Mission 8: November 2023 (in-person).................................................................................................. 12 A.IMF Working Paper WP/23/153 ............................................................................................................. 15B.Forthcoming working paper ................................................................................................................... 15 Section IV. Aide-Mémoire (Post January 2025 Mission) ....................................................................... 17 Section V. References .............................................................................................................................. 18 Acronyms and Abbreviations FPAS ......…………...Forecasting and Policy Analysis SystemICD .........…………...Institute for Capacity DevelopmentIMF .........…………...International Monetary FundJSA …………………Japanese Sub-Account funding Preface At the request of the National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT), a Macroeconomic Frameworks TechnicalAssistance (TA) Project on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) for NRBT was A total of eleven missions (five in-person and six virtual) were conducted during 2021-25. The projectfocused on two broad and complementary workstreams, both with noteworthy achievements but also i.Developing analytical tools for macroeconomic assessment and forecasting among NRBT staff ii.Integration of the resulting analytical reports into NRBT’s policy processes and external The FPAS TA project has largely achieved its objectives: NRBT forecasting team has made remarkableprogress and is regularly delivering high-level analytical support to the policymakers. FPAS-based work The mission team consisted of Celine Rochon (ICDFP, Project manager, who participated in all TAmissions) and Sam Ouliaris (short-term expert, who participated in all TA missions and reviewed