危地马拉：加强危地马拉银行预测和政策分析系统的技术援助报告

Strengthening the Forecasting and PolicyAnalysis System at Bank of Guatemala November 2025 Prepared ByJuan Jose Ospina Tejeiro (External Expert) Authoring Departments/Institutions: Monetary and Capital Markets DISCLAIMER The contents of this report constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the International MonetaryFund (IMF) to the authorities of Guatemala (the “TA recipient”) in response to their request for technicalassistance. This report (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof may be disclosed by the IMF to IMFExecutive Directors and members of their staff, as well as to other agencies or instrumentalities of the TArecipient, and upon their request, to World Bank staff, and other technical assistance providers anddonors with legitimate interest, including members of the Steering Committee of CAPTAC-DR , unless The analysis and policy considerations expressed in this publication are those of the IMF’s Monetary and International Monetary Fund, IMF PublicationsP.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A.T. +(1) 202.623.7430 • F. +(1) 202.623.7201publications@IMF.org Acknowledgments BENEFICIARY COUNTRIES/MEMBERS FINANCIAL PARTNERS Contents Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................................................3 Preface .........................................................................................................................................................6 Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................10 A. Status Quo ..............................................................................................................................................12B. Assessment ............................................................................................................................................14C. Recommendations..................................................................................................................................18 II. Use of Models in the Forecasting Process and Incorporating the QPM .........................................22 A. Status Quo ..............................................................................................................................................22B. Assessment ............................................................................................................................................23C. Recommendations..................................................................................................................................24 III. Operational Processes, Efficiency, and Infrastructure ....................................................................26 A. Status Quo ..............................................................................................................................................26B. Assessment ............................................................................................................................................26C. Recommendations..................................................................................................................................26 Glossary Preface At the request of the Banco de Guatemala (BANGUAT), an in-person Regional Technical AssistanceCenter for Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic (CAPTAC-DR) technical assistance(TA) mission assisted BANGUAT in reviewing the institutional framework of their Forecasting and PolicyAnalysis System (FPAS). The goal of this mission was to provide recommendations to construct an FPASthat better helps guide policy decisions and is better aligned with best practices. The TA was carried outin Guatemala City from March 3 through March 7, 2025. During the visit, Mr. Juan José Ospina (Short-term Monetary and Capital Markets Department External Expert, Banco de la República, Colombia)interviewed staff and management from different areas in charge of the design, implementation, andcommunication of monetary policy (MP) decisions. Meetings were held with BANGUAT's Vice-President,Mr. José Alfredo Blanco, BANGUAT’s Chief Economist, Mr. Johny Gramajo, the Director and staff fromthe Department of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting (DAMP, acronym in Spanish), the Directorand staff from the Department of Economic Research (DIE), the Director and Staff of the MacroeconomicStatistics Department (DEM), the Director and Staff of the Department of Execution of Monetary,Exchange Rate and Credit Policies (DEPMCC), and the Director and staff of Department ofCommunication and Institutional Relations (DCRI).The discussions covered: 1) the role of the FPAS in the monetary-policy decision making process and the benefits and frictions of the current system; 2) the coordination of the different departments involved inforecasting and policy analysis; 3) the use of t