诺瓦瓦克斯（NVAX）：新的CIC/流感数据支持与合作伙伴进入3期试验

Roger Song, MD, CFA * | Equity Analyst(617) 342-7955 | rsong@jefferies.comLiang Cheng, Ph.D. * | Equity Associate+1 (617) 342-7896 | lcheng1@jefferies.comFiona Jia, Ph.D. * | Equity Associate+1 (617) 342-7942 | fjia@jefferies.comCha Cha Yang, MS, MBA * | Equity Associate+1 (857) 330-5772 | cyang2@jefferies.com guidance and plans to resubmit in 2H25 with flu efficacy data from mRNA-1010. Pfizer also reporteddata in 2H24 but did not meet non-inferiority for one of its primary immunogenicity endpoints.Upon approval, NVAX is expected to be the first available non-mRNA option, with a potentially morefavorable side effect profile. Its liquid-stable formulation removes cold chain complexities and maysupport broader adoption.Next Steps.The new corporate growth strategy reflects a significant pivot toward a leaner,partnership-driven model with a focus on platform monetization and pipeline diversification. SNYmarket research highlights an unmet need/ preference for combination vaccines Chart 2. CV19strain landscape remains fluid: While LP.8.1 was the dominant variant, the emerging NB.1.8.1variant has spread further with the possibility to overtake Chart 3. Recall last year, FDA gave post-VRBPAC update on strain preference to KP.2 While FDA has a preference for LP.8.1 strain withinJN.1 lineage for this season, we note the JN.1-lineage approach recommended by VRBPAC (NOTE)ensures broader coverage for all strains (including forward drifted strains) and has shown similarneutralizing antibody responses across JN1 subvariants.Chart 2 - Market Survey for CIC.Source: Company ReportsChart 3 - Emerging CV19 StrainsLast Updated 5/23/2025.Source: WHOPlease see important disclosure information on pages 3 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionNovavaxNovavax is a clinical-stage company focused on the development of novel vaccines for the prevention of diseases, including COVID-19, influenza,and RSV. Its vaccines are based on two key features: 1) genetically engineered three-dimensional nanostructures of recombinant proteins critical todisease pathogenesis and 2) proprietary immune-stimulating saponin-based adjuvant, Matrix-M. Novavax believes its vaccines induce differentiatedimmune responses that could ultimately be more efficacious than traditional vaccines and naturally occurring immunity after infection.Company Valuation/RisksNovavaxOur PT is based on probability-adjusted DCF. Risks include competition, delays, and lackluster efficacy/safety data.Moderna, Inc.Our price target is DCF-based. Risks include clinical, manufacturing, competitive, regulatory, and commercial.Pfizer IncValuation: Our PT is supported by our PE/PEG-relative and DCF-based valuations. Risks include LOEs, R&D, manufacturing, reimbursement,competition, and M&A.Analyst Certification:I, Roger Song, MD, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, Liang Cheng, Ph.D., certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, Fiona Jia, Ph.D., certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Cha Cha Yang, MS, MBA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies)and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receives compensationbased in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulationsmay prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervalsas appropriate in the analyst's judgement.Investment Recommendation Record(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)Recommendation PublishedRecommendation DistributedCompany Specific DisclosuresJefferies Financial Group I