让葡萄牙成为绿色氢能强国

Hydrogenapplicationsandbusinessmodels Goingblueandgreen? KearneyEnergyTransitionInstituteJune2020 CompiledbytheKearneyEnergyTransitionInstitute Hydrogenapplicationsandbusinessmodels Acknowledgements TheKearneyEnergyTransitionInstitutewishestoacknowledgethefollowingpeoplefortheirreviewofthisFactBook:Dr.BrianEfird,programdirectorattheKingAbdullahPetroleumStudiesandResearchCenter;LucasBertrand,BusinessDevelopmentDirectorforITMPowerinFranceandBenelux;aswellasDr.AdnanShihab-Eldin,ClaudeMandil,AntoineRostand,andRichardForrest,membersoftheboardfortheKearneyEnergyTransitionInstitute. TheirreviewdoesnotimplythattheyendorsethisFactBookoragreewithanyspecificstatementsherein. AbouttheFactBook:hydrogenapplicationsandbusinessmodels ThisFactBookseekstoprovideanoverviewofhydrogen-relatedtechnologies,emergingapplications,andnewbusinessmodels,coveringtheentirevaluechainandanalyzingtheenvironmentalbenefitsandeconomicsofthisspace. AbouttheKearneyEnergyTransitionInstitute TheKearneyEnergyTransitionInstituteisanonprofitorganizationthatprovidesleadinginsightsonglobaltrendsinenergytransition,technologies,andstrategicimplicationsforprivate-sectorbusinessesandpublic-sectorinstitutions.TheInstituteisdedicatedtocombiningobjectivetechnologicalinsightswitheconomicalperspectivestodefinetheconsequencesandopportunitiesfordecision-makersinarapidlychangingenergylandscape.TheindependenceoftheInstitutefostersunbiasedprimaryinsightsandtheabilitytoco-createnewideaswithinterestedsponsorsandrelevantstakeholders. Authors ThibaultL’Huby,PrashantGahlot,andRomainDebarre 2 2 Hydrogen–H2FactBookOverview ThisFactBookisstructuredinfoursections 1H2roleintheenergytransition Thissectionprovidesabriefdescriptionoftheenergydecarbonizationchallengetomitigateclimatechangeandgivesanoverviewofhydrogen’spotentialroleandimpact. HydrogencouldhelpreduceGHGemissionsinmultiplesectors,representingabouthalfofglobalGHGemissions 3KeyH2applications 2H2valuechain Thissectionprovidesanoverviewofproduction,storage,andtransporttechnologies—lookingattheirperformances,limitations,andenvironmentalbenefitsandgivingsomeperspectiveontheirtechnologymaturityandpossibleimprovements. ThedeploymentofBlueHydrogencouldhelpdeveloplarge-scaleinfrastructures,providingtimeforGreenHydrogentomatureandscaleup 4H2businessModels Thissectionlooksatexistingandemerginghydrogenapplicationsandassessestheirmaturity.Hydrogenapplicationsarecategorizedintofourtypes:industrialapplications,mobility,powergeneration,andgasenergy. Hydrogenisbroadlyusedinindustriesbutremainsimmatureinthebroadersetof 3applications,forwhichcostreductionandinnovativebusinessmodelsarerequired Thissectionlooksattheemergingbusinessmodels,consideringcurrentmarketconditionsandtheirpossiblelong-termevolutionassumingapotentialtechnologycostreductionandperformanceimprovement. Mosthydrogenbusinessmodelsrequirepolicysupport,withheavy-dutytransportationbeingthemostpromisingoneinthecurrentcontext Someordersofmagnitudein20195 Executivesummary6 1.Hydrogen’sroleintheenergytransition16 2.Hydrogenvaluechain:upstreamandmidstream25 2.1Productiontechnologies27 2.2Conversion,storage,andtransportationtechnologies49 2.3Maturityandcosts61 3.Keyhydrogenapplications78 3.1Overview80 3.2Feedstock84 3.3Energy90 3.Businessmodels114 4.1Policiesandcompetitionlandscape116 4.2Businesscases125 Appendix(Bibliography&Acronyms)187 4 Someordersofmagnituderegardinghydrogenin2019 5 Annualproductionofhydrogen –Globalproduction:118Mt,ofwhich70Mtisfromdedicatedsources –Fromfossilfuels:69Mt –Fromelectrolysis:4Mt,ofwhich3Mtisaby-productofthechlorineindustry Currentlargestplants –Fossilfuelplant:450ktperyear –Alkalineelectrolyzer:165MW –PEMelectrolyzerplant:10MWor1.8ktperyear Annualuseofglobalhydrogenproduction –Ammoniaandmethanolsynthesis:43Mtperyear(37%) –Oilrefining:38Mtyear(33%) –Steelmanufacturing:13Mtperyear(11%) –Other:21Mtperyear(18%) CO2emissionsfromhydrogenproduction –830MtCO2peryear –About2%ofglobalCO2emissions Equivalenceof1MtofH2intermsofoil –About21Mboe –Aboutaquartertheworld’sdailyoilconsumption Whatdoes1tonofH2represent? –Feedstocktorefineabout285barrelsofcrudeoil –3,000to5,000kmofautonomyforafuelcelltrain Whatdoes1kgofH2represent? –About100kmofautonomyforafuelcellcar,equalto6to10litersofgasoline Howtostore1tonofH2? –Ifuncompressed,about56,000bathtubs –Ifcompressedat700bars,about120bathtubs –Ifliquefied,about65bathtubs Howmuchhydrogenwouldberequiredifthehydrogencarfleet...: –Reaches100,000vehicles:15ktperyear –Reaches5millionvehiclesintheBEVfleet:750ktperyear –Reaches1.2billionvehiclesintheICEcarfleet:180Mt Howwillwepossiblyusehydrogenin2050? –Inindustry:245Mt,ofwhich112Mtwillbeforheating –Intransportation:154Mt,includingsyntheticfuels –Inpowerandgas:140Mt Hydrogen(H2)couldplayamajorroleinvarious energyapplications,contributing toglobaldecarbonization Hydrogen’sroleintheenergytransition (Section1:pages16–24) Executivesummary(1/10) 6 Theneedfordecarbonization 1 AnthropogenicCO2emissions(excludingAFOLU)haveacceleratedduringthe20thcentury,risingto about37Gt