蒙古-国家气候与发展报告：背景说明

© 2024The World BankGroup1818 H Street NW, Washington,DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet:www.worldbank.orgThis work is a product of the staffoftheInternational Bank for Reconstruction and Development(IBRD),theInternational Development Association (IDA),the International Finance Corporation (IFC),andtheMultilateralInvestment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), collectivelyknown asThe World BankGroup, with external contributors.The World BankGroupdoesnot guarantee the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the content included in this work,or the conclusions or judgments described herein, and accepts no responsibility orliability for any omissions or errors(including, without limitation, typographical errors and technical errors) in the content whatsoever or for reliancethereon. The boundaries, colors, denominations,links/footnotesand other information shown in this work do not implyany judgment on the part ofany of the organizations of The WorldBankGroupconcerningthe legal status of any territoryor the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.The citation of works authored by others does not meanThe WorldBankGroupendorses the views expressed by those authors or the content of their works.The findings, interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the viewsof IBRD/IDA, IFC and MIGA, their respectiveBoards ofExecutiveDirectors, andthe governments they represent.The contents of this work are intended for general informational purposes only and are not intended to constitute legal,securities,or investment advice, an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, or a solicitation of any type.Some of the organizations ofThe World BankGroupor their affiliates may have an investment in, provide other advice orservices to, or otherwise have a financial interest in, certain of the companies and parties named herein.Nothing herein shall constituteor be construed orconsidered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges andimmunities ofany ofIBRD/IDA, IFC and MIGA, all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and PermissionsThe material in this work is subject to copyright. BecausetheWorldBankGroupencouragesdissemination of itsknowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution tothis work is given and all further permissions that may berequired for suchuse (as noted herein) are acquired. TheWorld BankGroupdoes not warrant that the content contained in this work will not infringe on the rights of thirdpartiesandaccepts no responsibility orliability in this regard. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to WorldBank Publications, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. 2 CONTENTSBACKGROUNDNOTE 1:Mongolia CCDR Macroeconomic Modelling BackgroundPaper......................................................................................................................4Xinru Lin, Ira Dorband, Hector PollittBACKGROUNDNOTE 2:How Bad Could It Get? Assessing Mongolia’s ‘Worst CasePlausible’ Scenario...............................................................................................17Migle Petrauskaite, Hector PollittBACKGROUNDNOTE 3:Challenges and Opportunities in the Mining Sector.......33Andrew Womer, Hector PollittBACKGROUNDNOTE 4:MongoliaElectricity and District Heating Sector Analysisand Pathways Toward Financial Stability............................................................50Stuart Thorncraft,Adwoa Asantewaa,Hiroaki Yamada,Yanqin Song,BarshaPandy,Tumentsogt Tsevegmid,Haoyang LuBACKGROUNDNOTE 5:Potential Efficiency Gains in Carbon Storage andEconomic Returns under Current and Potential Future Climate Change............64Peter Hawthorne,Haku Bo,Stephen PolaskyBACKGROUNDNOTE 6:Technical notes onCCDRChapter 4.2.Beyond disasterrisks..................................................................................................................85Carola Gruen 3 BACKGROUNDNOTE 1:MONGOLIA CCDR MACROECONOMIC MODELLINGBACKGROUND PAPERXinru Lin, Ira Dorband, Hector Pollitt1.IntroductionThis note describes the macroeconomic modelling that was carried out for the Mongolian CountryClimate Development Report (CCDR). The following section introduces the scenarios and discusses howthe model inputs that were used to present them. Section 3 describes the MINDSET model that wasused to carry out the analysis. Results are presented in Section 4 and key conclusions in Section 5.2.ScenariosThe scenarios can be categorized into three groups:•Climate impacts•Adaptation measures•Mitigation actionsAs well as estimates of mean climate impacts, there is a ‘shock’ scenario that could be described as aplausible worst outcome case (Box 1). The shock scenario uses the same modelling approach as the onethat estimates mean outcomes. It is discussed in more detail in a separate background paper to theCCDR.2.1Climate impacts andadaptationThere are two