Gevo：更新RNG路径上行模型

2025E2026E16.9152.5165.3(11.4)28.3(0.21)(0.03)(0.28)(0.14) 2027E173.938.2(0.00)(0.14) Dushyant Ailani, CFA * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8318 | dailani@jefferies.comJulien Dumoulin-Smith * | Equity Analyst+1 (281) 774-2066 | jds@jefferies.comPaul Zimbardo * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8497 | pzimbardo@jefferies.comWhitney Mutalemwa * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 707-6413 | wmutalemwa@jefferies.com The Long View: GevoInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Gevo is currently progressing towards starting up its SAF facility in 2027.Until then, the company has revenue from its 400,000 MMBtu RNG facilityin Iowa, and in 2025 will have Gevo North Dakota, formerly known as RedTrail, as an additional source to fuel its top-line growth.•We are on the sidelines as Gevo takes steps to de-risk NZ1. In the meantime,the company has secured conditional loan commitment for up to ~$1.63bnfrom the DOE. As we wait the finalization from the DOE and FID, we'll alsolook to see Gevo's equity stake in NZ and how the terms are structured fortaking on the initial risk.•As Gevo reaches certain milestones, including project financing, we expectthe discount to peers should compress.Base Case,$1.1, -8%•Our $1.10 price target is based on a SOTPanalysis using a ~7.4x EV/EBITDA for RNG and~7.4x EV/EBITDA Gevo North Dakota•In 2026, we assume gross margins of ~38% forthe overall business•We exclude NZ1 estimates given the potentialuncertainties around NZ1 execution.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):1.Water & Wastewater Mgmtwill be pivotal for Gevo as it will require water for feedstockprocessing, among others, as it works towards the start-up of NZ1. Furthermore, waterused by farms through which Gevo will acquire its feedstock may have impacts onlocal water resources as well. The risk of reduced water availability may result in costincreases or operational disruption.Company Target(s):1.Net-Zero Project 1, expected to be operational in 2025, will provide fuel products that areexpected to achieve a net-zero GHG footprint.2.Engineer fuels to surpass net-zero and get to net-negative carbon emissionsQs to Mgmt:1.How are you tracking or plan on tracking your GHG emissions, if any?ESG Integration: The Jefferies ApproachPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View3.532.521.510.5020252024•Our $2.40 price target is based on a SOTPanalysis using an ~9.4x EV/EBITDA for RNG anda ~9.4x EV/EBITDA for Gevo North Dakota•Higher multiple for RNG is driven by approvalfor a permanent pathway from CARB. Additionalupside assumes better than expected marginsDownside Scenario,$0.3, -75%•Our $0.30 price target is based on a SOTPanalysis using an ~5.9x EV/EBITDA for RNG anda ~5.9x EV/EBITDA for Gevo North Dakota•Downside assumes lower than expectedmargins and utilization rates from Red TrailCatalysts•Secure DoE debt financing which managementexpects to accomplish in 2025.•Establish strategic partnerships with potentialequity investors for the NZ1 project. All this tobe done without significantly diluting existingshareholders.•Strong execution in RNG and potentiallyadditional facilities coming online. Upside Scenario,$2.4, +102%for Gevo North Dakota. 2 Proposed legislation on 45Z extension presents a significant upside for GEVO.The recent passageof House legislation proposing an extension of the 45Z Clean Fuels Production Tax Credit through2031, from its original expiration in 2027, presents a significant upside for GEVO. If the bill is alsoapproved by the Senate, it could unlock substantial long-term value for the company. For GEVOND, the extension of 45Z would provide critical financial incentives for its ethanol production. Theextended credit could be worth $30–40mn annually for GEVO’s ethanol operations alone. This wouldnot only enhance the company’s revenue stream but also improve investor confidence in its carbonabatement initiatives. That being said, transferability expected to expire (if House bill passed as isfor 45Z) for fuel sales after '27 will weigh on GEVO's ability to monetize credits in the future.Pivoting towards faster deployment and more economic ATJ project, ATJ-30.Gevo's Analyst Dayand 1Q gave a sneak peek into ATJ-30, a smaller and modularized version of ATJ-60. ATJ-30 wouldbe located near Gevo North Dakota, which has CCS feature onsite. While the timeline of the projecthas yet to be disclosed, it is believed by mgmt that project completion could be faster than SouthDakota's ATJ-60 given it's smaller size, at 30mn gal / year of SAF, and leveraging existing R&D workfrom ATJ-60. We look for more clarity on the project's development process in the next quarterlyupdate.Sale of Luverne to save ~$3mn / year in savings, room for additional revenue stream with retainedisobutanol production related assets:On Wednesday Gevo entered into a definitive agreementto sell Agri-Energy, a previously idled