米泰克系统公司（MITK）：模型更新——进展迹象

2025E177.80.960.830.960.879.8x11.4x 2026E2027E189.6204.80.781.011.07-12.1x9.4x Surinder Thind, CFA * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1515 | sthind@jefferies.comRebecca Zamsky * | Equity Associate+1 (332) 236-6855 | rzamsky@jefferies.comRelated ResearchTechand Info Services:4Q Preview—Upgrade SSNC to Buy, Downgrade SPNS toHold (2/3/2025)F4Q24First Take—Earnings Beat,AGuidance Miss, and a New Plan to SpurGrowth (12/16/2024)DowngradetoUncertainty (9/4/2024) HoldonNear-term The Long View: Mitek SystemsInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•MITK is in the early innings of its pivot to digital identity verification, wherethe market is underestimating the potential for longer-term growth giventhe large TAM.•Channel checks suggest mobile deposit pricing could inflect up from heregiven higher adoption post COVID-19.•Deep industry knowledge of the digital identity space given credit bureaucoverage.Base Case,$10, +6%Calendar 2025 Outlook•Economy experiences a soft landing•MITK continues to expand presence in digitalidentity verification space through partnershipsor M&A.•Expect penetration of~$500mm near-termTAM in identity space.•Mobile check deposit adoption tailwindscontinue.•$10.00 PT reflects our CY 2025 EPS estimate of$0.78 at 12.5x P/E.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1) Customer Privacy:As a global leader in mobile capture and digital identityverifications solutions, embedded into ~7,500 apps and used by more than ~80 million customers, MITKprocesses millions of user personal ID data on its customers. We think companies should adhere tostrict standards while maintaining customer data.2) Data Security:A priority for all companies thatmaintain customer personal data, particularly user ID firms, is security. We think companies should investaggressively in cybersecurity to protect its consumers’ data.Company Target(s): N/AQs to Mgmt: 1)What percentage of your capex is spent on cybersecurity and the protection of your clientsrecords?2)What % of your mgmt. level positions are currently held by underrepresented professionals,is there are a target that the company would like to achieve and if so what’s the plan to achieve that goal?ESG Sector Deep Dive: Waste ManagementPlease see important disclosure information on pages 14 - 19 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$16, +69%Calendar 2025 Outlook•Economy experiences a soft landing•MITK significantly expands presence in digitalidentity verification space through partnershipsor M&A.•Expect penetration of ~$1bn TAM in identityspace.•Check Fraud Defender becomes a meaningfulcontributor.•$16 PT reflects our CY2025 EPS estimate of$1.10 at 15.0x P/E. Downside Scenario,$5.75, -39%Calendar 2025 Outlook•Economy materially slows•MITK loses market share in digital identityverification space or fails to make accretivepartnerships or M&A.•MITK fails to penetrate of ~$500mm TAM inidentity space.•Mobile check deposit adoption slows, CheckFraud Defender growth doesn't materialize•$5.75 PT reflects our CY2025 EPS estimate of$0.75 at 7.5x P/E.Catalysts•Acceleratedgrowthverificationrevenue growing a head of themarket•M&A announcement in the ID verification space•Patent lawsuit is settled fromincreasedID2 Guidance & Estimate UpdatesAs we look back, F2Q results came in well above expectations, especially margins and adj EPS.Meanwhile, F2025 revenue guidance of $170-180M (-1.2% to +4.6% y/y) was unchanged, which wasconsistent with expectations (Jefferies: $178M, Consensus: $176M). While mgmt does not providequarterly guidance, they did indicate they expect 3Q revenues to exceed 4Q due to seasonality. AdjEBITDA margin guidance was raised by 100 bps to the range of 26-29%, which was a bit of a surpriserelative to consensus (Jefferies: 27.5%, Consensus: 26.7%). Mgmt anticipates operating margins toimprove sequentially throughout the year as they execute upon their cost discipline initiatives*Note: estimates shown above in parentheses are published estimates prior to the release ofearnings.Our F2025 revenue estimate is essentially unchanged at $178M. We expect growth to be roughly flatto positive in the back half of the year. Our estimate for F2025 falls slightly above the midpoint ofmgmt's guidance range. We have raised our adjusted EBITDA margin by 40 bps to 27.9%, which fallsslightly above the midpoint of mgmt's new guidance range. Our new estimate for F2025 adj EPS is$0.83 (from $0.92), which reflects adjustments to below the line items. Our full-year 2025 estimatechange can be seen below, and a detailed discussion of the quarter follows thereafter.Exhibit 1 - Guidance vs Our Estimates and Consensus.F2025 (Full Year)Revenue ($Millions)Adjusted EBITDAS (Non-GAAP)Source: Company Data, Jefferies, FactSetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 14 - 19 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. LowHigh$170$18026.0%29.0%Guid