阿布扎比港口公司（ADPORTS）：模型更新；第一季度后的稳步进展

2023A2024E11,678.817,286.32,668.44,509.30.210.2618.6x15.0x 2025E20,438.14,777.90.2913.3x Graham Hunt, CFA * | Equity Analyst44 (0)20 7548 4251 | ghunt@jefferies.comGlynis Johnson * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8677 | glynis.johnson@jefferies.comPriyal Woolf * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8183 | pwoolf@jefferies.comLaura Ojeil * | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7029 8220 | lojeil@jefferies.comGonzalo Riera Ripoll * | Equity Associate+44 (0)20 7548 4690 | grieraripoll@jefferies.com The Long View: AD PortsInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferAD Ports' strategy to leverage a domestic monopoly, expand its footprintinternationally, and move up and down the value chain delivers a 20%+ earnings growth opportunity for a low-beta, defensive port operator.Strategically located and with >70% of profits in long-term inflation-linkedcontracts, the portfolio looks well-placed vs. peers in terms of weather,economic and geopolitical headwinds.Base Case,AED6.6, +69%AD Ports steps up its capex plan towards theupper end of the AED12-15b range (2024-28),delivers sales and profit growth in the bottomhalf of guidance range, and achieves positiveFree Cash Flow by 2026.Our PT is DCF-based.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):Minimising the environmental impact of Port and Transportation operationsand the use of more sustainable building practices through adequate design and green materials. Themaritime and greater transport sectors make up ~3% and ~25% of global greenhouse gas emissionsrespectively. As owners and facilitators of these industries, port operators must play an increasinglyimportant role in the transition to net zero.Company Target(s):With Abu Dhabi's goal of diversifying away from fossil fuels being its raisond'etre, AD Ports' targets are in line with both Abu Dhabi's 2030 ESG initiatives and the UN's SDGs.The firm's key focus includes a continued push to adopt sustainable business standards, renewableenergy generation, power, waste and water savings, and greater maritime area protection.Qs to Mgmt:What kind of incentive schemes does AD Ports offer customers of the Ports or EconomicCities & Freezones to encourage environmental practices? What % of build materials for new portand storage development are low or zero carbon? How is AD Ports advancing decarbonisation in thelogistics space?Please see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,AED7.5, +92%ADPorts delivers additional synergies fromtheNoatum and GFS acquisitions,drivingperformance towards the top end of guidanceon similar capex demand driving an acceleratedFCF and deleveraging path.Our PT is DCF-based. Downside Scenario,AED3.5, -10%AD Ports continues to invest to drive up scale;however,profitability and returns suffer asacquisitions fail to deliver on cost and revenuesynergy aspirations.Our PT is DCF-based.Catalysts2Q25 Results - August 2025.Shipping rates development.Concession agreements for International PortOperators.Acquisitions across Logistics and Maritime. 2 Exhibit 1 - AD Ports - Key Estimates.Quarterly Forecasts (AEDm)AD Ports GroupSales% YoYEBITDA% MarginEBIT% MarginContainers (m TEUs)% YoYEconomic Cities & Free ZonesSales% YoYEBITDA% MarginEBIT% MarginNew Land Leases, netMaritimeSales% YoYEBITDA% MarginEBIT% MarginLogisticsSales% YoYEBITDA% MarginEBIT% MarginDigitalSales% YoYEBITDA% MarginEBIT% MarginSource: Company Data, Jefferies EstimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 2 - AD Ports - Summary Financials.Quarterly Forecasts (AEDm)SalesYoY GrowthEBITDAEBITDA marginEBITEBIT marginPBTIncome taxNet Profit- NCI- Att. To AD PortsEPSAD Ports - Net ProfitPortsEconomic Cities & Free ZonesMaritimeLogisticsDigitalNet Profit from OperationsCorproateEliminationsNet ProfitAD Ports - CFSAdj. EBITDALess Profits from JVsChange in WCOther non cash adjustmentsOCFDividends receivedCapexLease paymentsNet interest paid/ReceivedTax PaidFCFAcquisitions / One off inv.Dividends paid (to NCI)Net debt issue/repaymentsEquity buyback / issuesTotal Cash FlowNet Debt / (Cash) (ADP def.)Source: Company Data, Jefferies ResearchExhibit 3 - AD Ports - Jefferies Estimates. vs. Consensus.AD Ports (AEDm)JEFe vs. ConsensusSalesEBTIDAMargin (%)EBITMargin (%)Net ProfitMargin (%)EPSSource: Company Data, Jefferies Research, Company Collected Consensus (as of May 20, 2025)Please see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 4 - AD Ports - Summary of Estimates Change.AD Ports (AEDm)New estimates vs. oldSalesPortsEC&FZMaritimeLogisticsDigitalCorporate & EliminationsEBITDAPortsEC&FZMaritimeLogisticsDigitalCorporate & EliminationsEBITPortsEC&FZMaritimeLogisticsDigitalCorporate & EliminationsEPS