展望-第一季度后的模型更新

-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30% Martin Comtesse, CFA * | Equity Analyst49 69 719187107 | mcomtesse@jefferies.comFabian Piasta * | Equity Analyst+49 697 1918 7867 | fpiasta@jefferies.comSandrine Ghinea * | Equity Associate+49 69 719187298 (office) | sghinea@jefferies.comJulius Wright * | Equity Associate+49 69 719187127 | julius.wright@jefferies.com Summary of ChangesCompanyBechtleBC8 GRPreviousBefesaBFSA GRPreviousINFICONIFCN SWPreviousVosslohVOS GRPreviousflatexDEGIROFTK GRPreviousKontronKTN GRPreviousCancomCOK GRPreviousNagarroNA9 GRPreviousRedcare PharmacyRDC GRPreviousBASLERBSL GRPreviousAccelleronACLN SWPreviousFriedrich VorwerkVH2 GRPreviousGeorg FischerGF SWPreviousWacker NeusonWAC GRPreviousPlease see important disclosure information on pages 50 - 57 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. RatingPrice^BUY€38.30BUY€26.33BUYCHF99.20BUY€71.80HOLD€25.04BUY€22.96HOLD€27.55BUY€61.70BUY€126.60HOLD€8.74HOLDCHF48.36HOLD€58.10BUYCHF64.05HOLD€23.30 CompanyDocMorris AGDOCM SWPrevious^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.Cons. Rev.: Cons. Source: FactSetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 50 - 57 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. SMID performance YTDThe growth outlook for Europe continues to improve, driven by fiscal expansion, capital marketsunion, and an increased focus on competitiveness. Although European stocks have outperformed USpeers in 2025 YTD, we are still witnessing a small underperformance of European SMID comparedto liquid European large caps. SMID valuations are still sitting at the low end of the historical range,on absolute as well as relative basis to larger peers, which continues to point towards a potentiallystrong backdrop for future outperformance. In our view, investors should use continued ‘risk on’moves as an opportunity to reduce US exposure and increase allocations to Europe. Across ourcoverage, we favour European domestics, particularly in sectors that already have self-sufficientlocal supply chains, which should limit transaction headwinds.Exhibit 1 - MSCI Europe Small Cap vs. MSCI Europe performance.050100150200250300350400450500Source: FactSet, Jefferies; monthly, 06/02 = 100Exhibit 3 - MSCI Europe Small Cap vs. MSCI Europe - Annual outperformance.5%18%11%12%11%-10%-8%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Source: FactSet, Jefferies; 2025 YTDFive months into the year SMID is underperforming slightly compared to larger stocks, with adisparity of -1%. Performance was driven by geopolitical turmoil, including trade disputes and thevolatile negotiations on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine as well as an increasingly unified Europeanresponse to these challenges. For example, the EU commission launched the ReArm Europe plan,with over €800bn in defence spending by 2030 and the Clean Industrial Deal aiming to mobilisie over€100bn in short-term funding to support competitiveness and decarbonisation of EU industry willbe voted in EU parliament in July. With a successful soft-landing of the economy as inflation levelsare under control at around ~2% whilst PMIs are low but trending positively, the set up for EuropeanSMID remains compelling, particularly in the case of a ceasefire in Ukraine and/or if clarity on globaltariffs returns.Please see important disclosure information on pages 50 - 57 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. MSCI Europe Small Cap27%19%-8%10%15%0%15% MSCI EuropeExhibit 2 - MSCI Europe Small Cap vs. MSCI Europe performance.8090100110120130140MSCI Europe Small CapSource: FactSet, Jefferies0%10%-4%6%9%-1%-12%-2%-3%-1%Exhibit 4 - Relative Price Indexed - MSCI Europe Small Caps vs. MSCI Europe.SmallCaps under-performed in 9M23Source: Jefferies, Factset Exhibit 5 - MSCI Europe Small Cap vs. MSCI Europe - Semi-annual outperformance.9%-2%8%7%7%3%6%4%5%5%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%1H022H021H032H031H042H041H052H051H06Source: FactSet, Jefferies; 1H25 to dateRelative ValuationsIn comparison to their larger European peers, small caps stand near record lows with an averagevaluation discount of -10%. The chart below illustrates valuation multiples of small and midcapstocks relative to large caps reflected through NTM P/E of the MSCI Europe Small Cap and MSCIEurope, respectively. Within the last 17 years we identified 4 situations where SMID premiumsfell significantly below their long-term average. Each of these periods was followed by substantialdouble-digit outperformance of SMID in the following years.Exhibit 6 - Relative P/E NTM - MSCI Europe Small Cap vs. MSCI Europe.-35%-25%-15%-5%5%15%25%35%45%2008200920102011AvgNov 2008Discount-6%+28% (following 12m)+48% (24m)vs. Large CapsSource: Bloomberg, S&P Global, JefferiesThe re-rating following the GFC when SMID valuations compressed to a discount of -6% vs. largecaps, triggered a small cap outp