跨国医疗保健公司（CCRN）：2025年第一季度发布后的模型更新

1,344.01,340.12.6x 2024A49.17.6x 2025E2026E1,212.01,283.31,217.01,288.037.246.110.1x8.1x Jack Slevin, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-4686 | jslevin@jefferies.comBrian Tanquilut * | Equity Analyst(615) 963-8338 | btanquilut@jefferies.comMeghan Holtz * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 708-2876 | mholtz1@jefferies.com The Long View: Cross Country HealthcareInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•We expect CCRN's proposed acquisition by Aya will close in 2025.•We believe that the fundamentals of the temporary nursing industry haveconsiderably weakened due to the secular downward shift in bill rates andorder demand from hospitals. We also anticipate that CCRN's historicalnormalized Adj. EBITDA margins will fall below the historical HSD to low DDrange, leading us to a Hold position.•We anticipate that management's execution in terms of volume andcapacity expansion will face challenges. Furthermore, we believe thatexpectations for LT margins are overly optimistic, considering the currentvolume outlook and the competitive nurse staffing environment.Base Case,$18.61, +33%•Our base case PT is derived by matching Aya'stakeout offer of $18.61, which is equivalent to~14.1x our current FY25 EBITDA.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1) Human Rights & Community Relations.Engaging with local communities,charities, and organizations across South Florida and other operating markets provides an ESGopportunity for CCRN.2) Ecological Impacts.Another key focus for CCRN is ensuring the environmentalsustainability of day-to-day operations through monitoring energy and water usage, e-waste, and utilizingpartnerships.Company Target(s): 1)Incorporate efficient water technologies such as low flow plumbing fixtures andfaucet sensors into CCRN facilities.2)Reduce GHG intensity (relative to 2020) by reducing energy usagevia solar blinds and incorporating LED lighting across all facilities.Qs to Mgmt: 1)Could you give some color around how you’re tracking the progress of your ESG efforts,specifically with energy and water use, relative to 2023?2)Picking up from your 2023 CSR results, arethere any specific long-term diversity targets with respect to % of the workforce that consists of women,and minorities, and the same for upper-level management?Please see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View30252015105Upside Scenario,$18.61, +33%•Given our view that competing offers areunlikely to emerge for CCRN at this point, webelieve the upper bound for the stock is alsoAya's current offer. With the recent downturnin EBITDA expectations, valuing using ex-dealfundamentals is unlikely to result in a valuationabove $18.61/share. 20252024Downside Scenario,$11.00, -21%•A potential deal-break scenario should beconsidered a possibility•In this scenario, we assume a ~7x Multiple,resulting in a $11 share price after the break feeof $20MM is paid ($0.49/sh contribution).CatalystsQuarterly Earnings –CCRN shares primarily reactto its quarterly earnings results and guidance.Capital Deployment –with an improved balancesheetand cash flow outlook,CCRN has thepotential to execute on opportunistic M&A andbuybacks 2 Company DescriptionCross Country HealthcareCross Country Healthcare is a leading provider of innovative healthcare workforce solutions and staffing services. Its client base includes both clinicaland nonclinical settings, servicing acute-care hospitals, physician practice groups, outpatient and ambulatory-care centers, nursing facilities, publicschools, and charter schools, rehabilitation and sports medicine clinics, government facilities, and homecare. Through its national staffing teams andnetwork of office locations, CCRN is able to place clinicians on travel and per diem assignments, local short-term contracts, and permanent positions.Company Valuation/RisksCross Country HealthcareOur PT is based on an ~14.1x EV/EBITDA multiple and our 2025 EBITDA estimate. Risks include decline in hospital utilization trends, health systemscontinue to curtail their utilization of contingent labor, and disruption related to implementing new IT platforms.Analyst Certification:I, Jack Slevin, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Brian Tanquilut, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Meghan Holtz, certify that all of the views expres