默克集团：2025年第一季度后观点及模型更新-制药业务更强但仅逐步复苏

F25EF26E12.611.517.215.223 May 2025114.00147.0029%177.00/108.001,414.50Dec1.9%50,21758,4196M12M(18.3)(30.9)16.5(34.8)(40.3)05/2512001300140015001600 RatingMarket-PerformPrice TargetMRK.GRAdjusted EPSF24AMRK.GR (EUR)8.63OLD--Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.but only a gradual recoveryMerck KGaA’s 1Q results reported on 15 May came in broadly in line with consensus on salesand earnings, as a better performance at Pharma offset a softer showing at Life Science(despite confirmation of recovery at Process Solutions). The company adjusted its FY25guidance slightly (consensus stands at the high end of the guidance range). We have nudged upour estimates to reflect a stronger Pharma margin and a gradual recovery at Life Science andElectronics, but cut our PT to €147 (vs €168) mainly due to lower comparison multiples.Merck KGaA’s 1Q25 revenues grew +3% at constant exchange rates (CER),in linewith the company-compiled consensus,with a better performance at the Healthcaredivision offset by a softer showing at Life Science (lower revenues from the contractmanufacturing and academic research businesses, while recovery was on track at ProcessSolutions) and Electronics. Adjusted EBITDA came in 2% above consensus thanks to astronger-than-expected showing at Healthcare, which offset the weaker-than-anticipatedperformance at Life Sciences, while Electronics was in line with expectations.FY25 guidance tweaked,mainly to reflect the volatile business environment exacerbatedby US tariff policy. The new guidance is for revenue of €20.9-22.4bn (previously,€21.5-22.9bn) and adj. EBITDA (‘EBITDA pre’) of €5.8-6.4bn (previously, €6.1-6.6bn).Consensus stands broadly in line (Exhibit 4), but at the high end of the range on EPS pre.Investment ImplicationsMarket-Perform rating reiterated: recovery still gradual.We upgrade our estimatesto reflect the stronger Pharma performance and the gradual recovery at Life Scienceand Semiconductors. We cut our price target to €147 (from €168) mainly due to lowercomparison multiples across the three businesses since our last update. The companyexpects visibility to improve on Pharma’s long-term performance, but we believe it will begradual - although acquisitions such as SpringWorks (see our 28 April report) and early-stagepipeline in cancer should help (see our 5 June report). The recovery in the semiconductorend-markets and the sequential pick-up at Life Science should reassure investors. However,the semiconductors recovery has been taking longer than expected, and, despite positivesigns at Process Solutions, contract manufacturing activities are still volatile.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 26 May 2025 16:48 UTC Completion Date: 26 May 2025 16:48 UTC 147.00 EUR(168.00OLD)F26E9.9510.91FinancialsReported EPS F25E9.079.70F24AF25EF26ECAGR6.396.647.52--Close DateEDMFYEDiv YieldEV (EUR) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)EDM (%)9.4Relative (%)€200€180€160€140€12005/24 DETAILSEXHIBIT 1:1Q25 sales breakdown by subdivision (€5.2bn)HealthcareLife Science Services (LS)Display Solutions (E)Semiconductor Solutions (E)Source: Company1Q25 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: BROADLY IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS...Group net sales increased by 2.5% at CER to €5.3bn, in line with the consensus expectation, with all three business divisionscontributing to growth, but especially Healthcare. Group EBITDA pre grew 5.8% at CER to €1.5bn and came in 2% aboveconsensus, primarily due to better cost control of Healthcare R&D as well as good overall cost control at a group level. EPS preincreased 2.9% yoy to €2.12 but fell 2.1% short of the market expectation.EXHIBIT 3:Sales by main product (€m) and % growth€m, except earnings pershareSalesHealthcareLife ScienceScience & Lab SolutionsLife Science ServicesProcess SolutionsElectronicsDisplay Solutions/OptronicsSurface SolutionsSemiconductor SolutionsEBITDA adjustedHealthcareLife SciencesElectronicsCorporate & othersMargin (%)EBITDA margin (%)HealthcareLife SciencesElectronicsNet Profit adjustedEPS adjustedProductsRebifErbituxGonal-FGlucophageBavencioMavencladSource: Bernstein analysis & estimates; company compiled consensusFY25 GUIDANCE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLYGiven the current volatile geopolitical and business environment as well as potential foreign currency headwinds for all the threebusiness divisions, the company tweaked its the sales guidance. The new guidance ranges are for revenues of €20.9-22.4bnEUROPEAN BIOPHARMACEUTICALS % sales1Q25a1Q24aCons.1Q25eBernsteinestimates1Q25eActual vscons. (%)5,2805,1205,2795,24640%2,1142,0482,0822,08142%2,2182,1442,2362,20822%1,1491,1701,1881,1813%15115716419617%91981788783118%9489289569564%1981871881862%10110910610112%64963365967029%1,5351,4541,5111,426796708760709622611639613244237244245(127)(102)(141)29%28%29%27%38%35%37%34%28%29%29%28%26%26%25%26%924895883€ 2.12€ 2.06€ 2.17€ 2