天然钻石行业的未来

May 2024 Contents 25Future Outlook for the DiamondIndustry 01Executive Summary •Long-Term Outlook•Stress Testing the Outlook: Beyond theMost Likely Corridor○Downsides to the Most LikelyIndustry Outlook○Upsides to the Most Likely IndustryOutlook 02Introduction•The Natural Diamond Value Chain 05Long-Term Fundamental DriversImpacting the Diamond Industry •Supply Drivers○Primary Production○Secondary Supply•Value Chain and Stock Levels•Demand Drivers•Three Dynamics Influencing DiamondDemand Growth○The Continuing Rise of Brands○Lab-Grown Diamonds○Desirability Among the GrowingMiddle Class in Asia•The Impact of Recycling•The Future of Demand 28Final Reflections Executive Summary The natural diamond industry navigated a challenging 2023.Demand was impacted by the bridal catch-up effect after COVID-19restrictions eased, macroeconomic headwinds, and increasingdemand for lab-grown diamonds (LGDs), particularly in the US. Inaddition, short-term supply was affected by changes in midstreamand downstream stock levels. This resulted in a weakening of thevalue of rough natural diamonds. The drivers of the natural diamond industry differ inthe short and long term. The short-term outlook isdriven by, among other factors, stock levels in themidstream value chain segments and retail propensity torestock before and after key selling periods. The long-termoutlook (the focus of this report) is driven by supply anddemand fundamentals. While demand conditions mayremain uncertain in the short term, a more positive long-term industry outlook is supported by constrained primarysupply, rising global affordability underpinning demandgrowth, and industry initiatives (for example, effectivemarketing and retailer collaborations) to reinforce thedesirability of natural diamonds. This report looks at thesefundamental drivers in turn, aiming to bring greater trans-parency to the complex set of factors affecting the naturaldiamond industry. •The continuing rise of brands, which is driving growth indiamond jewelry and capturing a larger share of value indiamond jewelry sales •LGD demand, including the timing and degree to whichLGD adoption will peak within these ten years •The relative desirability of diamonds versus gold, oth-er gemstones, and alternative discretionary spending(including experiences) among the growing middle classin Asia A range of demand scenarios is possible across these dynam-ics. Taken together, a likely outlook sees annual demandgrowth over a ten-year period in the range of 2% to 4% CAGR.This outlook reflects growing GDP and PDI; sustained under-lying demand in the US; eventual differentiation betweennatural diamonds and LGDs as LGD prices and retailer mar-gins fall; a more moderate outlook for China; and the realiza-tion of strong growth in India. Primary supply of natural diamonds is expected to declineby approximately 1% CAGR over the next ten years. Futureproduction increases are unlikely to offset decreasing vol-umes from mines reaching the end of their productive life.Suppressed exploration budgets over the past decade, ascarcity of large new discoveries, and lengthy mine develop-ment timelines make it difficult to foresee significant newvolume increases, although there is some potential forbrownfield expansion of cyclically viable supply if prices rise.Artisanal mining volumes are a relatively small share ofsupply volume. Beyond primary supply, recycled diamondsare expected to have limited supply impact in the nextdecade, contributing less than 10% of the supply of naturalpolished diamonds. This overall constrained supply outlookprovides positive stability for the natural diamond industry. Given the instability of the past five years—which haveseen increased demand for LGDs, the pandemic, the catch-up effect after COVID restrictions eased, and a challenging2023—understanding the industry outlook requires afundamentals approach: the likely outlook on many factorsis not necessarily a continuation of momentum. This alsomeans the natural diamond industry cannot stay idle. Apositive demand outlook is also driven by several industryinitiatives. These include effective marketing to supportcategory and industry collaborations that reinforce thedesirability of natural diamonds among US consumers.They also include continued efforts to build desirability inAsia. Long-term demand for natural diamonds is driven by af-fordability and the desirability of diamonds relative toother jewelry, discretionary goods, or experiences. In thecoming years, the continuing growth of global real GDP,wealth, and personal disposable income (PDI) is expectedto drive overall affordability. Comparatively, desirabilityfaces greater uncertainty over the coming decade, withthree main dynamics shaping natural diamond demand: We hope you find the report instructive in understanding thelong-term natural diamond industry outlook, particularly atthis dynamic moment in time. Introduction The Natural Diamond Value ChainT Upstream.The upst