新兴技术的希望和恐惧

Hopes and Fearsaround Emerging Technologies Introduction What is emerging technology?4 Applications of emerging technology7 Krungsri Research’s survey results onhopes and fears around technology KrungsriResearch view17 References18 Unlessexplicitlystatedotherwise,thispublicationandallmaterialthereinisunder the copyright ofKrungsriResearch. As such, the reuse, reproduction, oralteration of this text or any part thereof is absolutely prohibited without priorwrittenconsent.Thisreportdrawsonawiderangeofwell-establishedandtrustworthysources,butKrungsriResearchcanmakenoguaranteeoftheabsolute veracity of the material cited. Moreover,KrungsriResearch will not beheld responsible for any losses that may occur either directly or indirectly fromany use towhich this reportorthe datacontained therein maybe put.Theinformation,opinions,andjudgementsexpressedinthisreportarethoseofKrungsriResearch, but this publication does not necessarily reflect the opinionsof Bank ofAyudhyaPublic Company Limited or of any other companies withinthe same commercial group. This report is an accurate reflection of the thinkingand opinions ofKrungsriResearch as of the day of publication, but we reservethe right to change those opinions without prior notice. For research subscription, contactkrungsri.research@krungsri.com Introduction ‘Emerging technology’covers a wide range of innovations that can generate significant impacts on societyand the economy, although at present, these are still at an early stage of implementation and so retainenormous potential for future development. Undeniably,the numerous benefits of emergingtechnologies have sparked hopes for development in various dimensions that can lead to an improvedquality of life for humans. However, viewed from another perspective, the lack of knowledge,understanding, and technological skills may give rise to fears and concerns that these technologies maypose threats to humanity, and these worries have been boosted by a genuine lack of certainty over thelikely long-term impacts. Against this backdrop, the process of introducing and exploiting these emergingtechnologies needs to be managed carefully, and attendant risks need to be monitored and minimized.This is an area where the government has an important role to play, especially with regard to designing anappropriate regulatory environment and then providing oversight of these technologies as they aredeployed in consumers’day-to-day lives and in organizational and enterprise contexts. Nevertheless,successfully managing these challenges will make a major contribution towards driving the futuredevelopment of the country. In light of this and to better understand the current situation,KrungsriResearch has surveyed members ofthe public on their hopes and fears around emerging technologies. In addition, research conducted abroadon these topics has been reviewed, and the findings from both the survey and literature review have beenused to guide relevant parties to effectively plan appropriate responses to the anticipated positive andnegative changes resulting from the swift transformation of the technological landscape. What is emerging technology? Although there is no fully exhaustive and agreed-upon definition of exactly what‘emerging technologies’are, research in this area1/has settled on an understanding of the term that considers a range of factorsextending over development, impacts, and applications. Key points encompassed by these definitions are: 1.Novelty:An emerging technology may still be at the initial stages of exploration and development.Alternatively, it may have reached the stage when applications have begun to emerge, but if so,uptake of these will not yet be widespread, though the speed of development and the adoption ratewill typically be high. 2.Wide-ranging impacts:Emerging technology can be expected to have wide-reaching impacts on theeconomy, society, and the environment. Research by the World Economic Forum classifies theseimpacts under the five headings of: people (safety and facilitating day-to-day life), the planet (ensuringplanetary protection), prosperity (accelerating development and improving livelihoods), industry(increasing new opportunities for industry, for example by developing new markets for products andservices), and equity (ensuring that members of society enjoy equal opportunities). 3.Long-term impacts:Emerging technology has the potential to precipitate large-scale transformationsof society, and to bring about fundamental long-term changes in how individuals live and how industryis organized. Wide-ranging Impacts of Emerging Technologies People Planet Prosperity Quality of people’s lives, such ascreating new jobsProviding greater connectivitybetween peopleIncreasing leisure time In brief, emerging technologies typically attract a significant level of interest or are beginning to take shapein publicly visible applications. These are in addition viewed as having the potential to