市场展望——2024年3月28日

Market Perspectives March 28, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT May 2024 Corn Futures......................................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 8Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ................................................................................. 9DDGS Comments....................................................................................................................................... 9Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 10Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 10U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 12Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 12Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 12Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 12 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook The lack of fresh fundamental market news contributed to the choppiness in the market in the early partof the week. On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its quarterly stocks report.March corn stocks were estimated at 8.347 billion bushels, up 12.9% from a year ago. This was 80million bushels less than the average trade estimate for March 1 corn stocks, at 8.427 billion bushels,but still represents a five-year high. For wheat, the USDA March stocks were 1.087 billion bushels, up16% from a year ago and 43 million bushels higher than the average trade estimate of 1.044 billionbushels and represents a 3-year high for March wheat stocks. For barley, March stocks in all positionswere estimated at 112 million bushels, 20% higher than a year ago. For soybeans, USDA’s estimate ofMarch stocks was 1.845 billion bushels, up 9.4% from a year ago and 17 million bushels higher than thetrade expectations prior to the report. The U.S. planting intentions report was also released on Thursday, March 28th. Corn planting intentionsare estimated at 90. 036 million acres, down 4.87% from a year ago and below the trade’s average pre-report estimate of 91.77 million acres. Soybean planting intentions were 86.51 million acres, up 3.48%from a year ago and in line with trade expectations. For 2024, 37.8% of corn acres are expected to beeast of the Mississippi River and 62.2% of corn acres are expected to be west of the Mississippi River.States east of the Mississippi River are expected to see a 5.2% drop in planted corn acres, on averagewith the primary states dropping 2.68% (IL) to 8.33% (OH). In total, the states east of the MississippiRiver are expected to plant 1.825 million acres less corn than last year. For states west of the MississippiRiver, total corn acres are expected to drop 2.78 million acres, from 58.79 million acres to 56.01 millionacres. This would be a 5.73% drop in corn acreage west of the Mississippi River. The largest percentagedrop in corn acres west of the Mississippi River is expected to be in Missouri (-9.09%) followed byMinnesota (-8.14%), North Dakota (-6.17%), and South Dakota (-4.76%). Iowa, the largest cornproducing state, is expected to have 2.29% less corn acres in 2024. The sharp drop in prospective cornplanting acres in the upper Midwest (west of the Mississippi River) was not expected by the trade. Lowcorn prices, and higher than expected operating costs are likely contributors to the shift to a lower-costcrop (soybeans) in this region. Producers indicate they intend to plant 86.51 million acres to soybeans in 2024, up 2.91 million acres(3.48%) from last year. Of those farmers who plan to shift acres, 59% of respondents will increasesoybean plantings. Soybean plantings are expected to broadly increase in the Corn Belt, with every statein the Midwest, except Kansas, showing an increase in soybean acres. With