市场展望——2024年3月14日

Market Perspectives March 14, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT May 2024 Corn Futures......................................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 8Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ................................................................................. 9DDGS Comments....................................................................................................................................... 9Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 10Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 10U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 12Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 12Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 12Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 12 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook CBOT grain futures came under pressure after a couple weeks of steady-to-higher prices as soybeanspushed against the 50-day moving averages and palm oil futures rose to the best levels in a year. But theweight of Chinese cancelations of wheat purchases pushed the wheat market sharply lower and withoutside markets showing signs of running out of momentum, corn prices follower lower also. Add tothese pressures, a northern and central Brazil weather forecast that is slightly wetter than prior runs andmarkets retreated to lower levels. While the lackluster global demand for U.S. corn has fueled a bearish market, the ethanol industry hasbeen consuming corn at record-high levels. The accumulated corn consumption for ethanol in 2023/24has reached a record high of 2,837 million bushels, surpassing the previous record of 2,818.8 millionbushels in 2021/22. This figure represents a 5.9% increase above the long-term average, indicatingrobust demand for corn in ethanol production. Ethanol margins continue to reach historic record highs, surpassing the margins of the previous year. Asof March 12, ethanol margins soared to an average of $1.37 per gallon, particularly prominent in keyproduction regions like the Corn Belt, marking an all-time high for this part of the season. In February, corn consumption for ethanol production increased significantly to 434.5 thousand bushels,up from 398.6 thousand bushels in January and 410.9 thousand bushels in February 2023. According to market indicators, analysts at LSEG Agricultural Research project the U.S. cornconsumption for ethanol in 2023/24 to be 5,464.4 million bushels, while the USDA's March WASDEestimate is slightly lower at 5,375 million bushels. These revisions underscore the robust outlook forethanol consumption, reaffirming the ethanol industry's strong position and positive momentum in themarket. On Tuesday, March 12th, Brazilian crop agency CONAB again lowered projections for Brazil’s corn andsoybean production as weather continues to take it toll on crops in Brazil. CONAB cut Brazil’s cornproduction estimate to 112.75 million tons from the February forecast of 113.70 million tons. CONABalso lowered the soybean production forecast by 2.6 million metric tons to 146.86 million metric tons.The gap between USDA’s estimate of Brazilian crop production and estimates originating from Brazilcontinues to widen. In USDA’s latest release, they still have Brazil estimated to produce 155 millionmetric tons of soybeans and 124 million metric tons of corn. If USDA eventually lowers its cropproduction estimates for Brazil, that may lead to increases in USDA’s estimates for U.S. corn andsoybean export sales. In its latest report, USDA did lower corn production estimates for the FSU-12,Ukraine, Russia, South Africa, and Mexico. It raised the corn production estimate for Argentina. CBOT May 2024 Corn Futures