市场展望——2024年11月14日

Market Perspectives November 14, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT December 2024 Corn Futures ............................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 8Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ................................................................................. 9DDGS Comments....................................................................................................................................... 9Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 10Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 10U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 12Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 12Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 13Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 13 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook There were mild surprises in the USDA November Crop Production and WASDE reports. USDA loweredboth corn and soybean yields with corn being lowered by 0.7 bu/acre to 183.1 bu/acre and soybeanyield being lowered by 1.4 bu/acre to 51.7 bu/acre. Corn production for grain is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down less than 1 percent from the previousforecast and down 1 percent from 2023. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected toaverage a record high 183.1 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.7 bushel from the previous forecast butup 5.8 bushels from last year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 82.7 million acres, unchanged fromthe previous forecast but down 4 percent from the previous year. Compared to the October report, cornyields of major producing states were decreased in IL (-4), IA (-1), and NE (-2). Yield was increased in IN(+7), and SD (+3) and held steady in MN. The very dry weather during harvest may well have contributedto the reduction in yields as harvested corn in many areas was 11-13% moisture rather than 15%moisture which is the standard. Sorghum production was increased from 317.7 million bushels to 320.7 million bushels with theincreases coming from yield increases in CO (+4), KS (+4), NE (+13), and SD (+8). Soybean production for beans is forecast at 4.46 billion bushels, down 3 percent from the previousforecast but up 7 percent from 2023. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected toaverage 51.7 bushels per acre, down 1.4 bushels from the previous forecast but up 1.1 bushels from2023. Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 86.3 million acres, unchanged fromthe previous forecast but up 5 percent from 2023. For major producing states, yields were decreasedfrom the October report for IL (-2), IA (-3), MN (-2), MO (-4), and SD (-2). Yields increased in IN (+2) andheld steady in NE and OH. The very dry weather during harvest may well have contributed to thereduction in yields as harvested soybeans in many areas were well under 10% moisture rather than 13%moisture which is the standard. On the demand side, USDA kept total corn use at 14.990 billion bushels. There were no changes in anyof the demand categories; feed use (5.825 billion bu), Ethanol use (5.45 billion bu) and exports (2.325billion bu). Ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year are projected at 1.938 billion bu, down 61million bu from October, but up 178 million bu from the 2023/24 marketing year. Sorghum demand increased by 15 million bu with all of the increase in feed use. Export dema