Market Summary
1. Crop Production Outlook
- Corn: Production forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down slightly from previous forecast. Yields expected at a record high of 183.1 bu/acre, down 0.7 bu from previous forecast.
- Soybeans: Production forecast at 4.46 billion bushels, down 3% from previous forecast. Yields expected at 51.7 bu/acre, down 1.4 bu from previous forecast.
- Sorghum: Production increased to 320.7 million bushels, driven by yield increases in key states.
2. Demand and Stocks
- Corn: Total use forecast at 14.990 billion bushels. Ending stocks projected at 1.938 billion bu, down 61 million bu from October.
- Sorghum: Demand increased by 15 million bu, primarily in feed use. Export demand held steady at 220 million bu.
- Barley: Imports projected at 12 million bu, exports at 5 million bu. Overall supply down 21 million bu from last year.
3. Market Highlights
- Harvest Progress: 95% of corn harvested, 91% of sorghum, and 96% of soybeans harvested.
- Weather/Crop Progress: Improved conditions in HRW wheat areas, dry weather in the western U.S., and mild, dry weather in the Corn Belt.
4. Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS)
- Prices averaged $148 per short ton, up $1 from the previous report.
- Ethanol production up 6.3% year-over-year, averaging 1,113 thousand barrels per day.
5. Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads
- ILA strike affecting U.S. East and Gulf Coast container terminals.
- Baltic Dry Index gained 203 points, led by Capesize sector.
- Grain freight rates to Japan down 3.2%, to China down 3% and 1.7% respectively.
6. U.S. Export Statistics
- Corn net sales up 18% from the previous week, primarily to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.
- Barley exports to South Korea and Japan.
- Sorghum net sales up 24% from the previous week, primarily to China.
