市场展望——2024年5月16日

Market Perspectives May 16, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT July 2024 Corn Futures.......................................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 6FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 8Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ................................................................................. 9DDGS Comments....................................................................................................................................... 9Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 10Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 10U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 12Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 12Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 12Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 13 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook The USDA released its updated WASDE report on May 10, 2024. The May report is one of the morewatched WASDE reports of the year as it coincides with the USDA’s first balance sheets estimates forproduction and use of corn and soybeans for 2024 for the U.S. and the world. With the very large gapbetween USDA and Brazilian-based estimates of South American corn and soybean production, tradereactions could be significant. This report brought overall friendly news to both the corn and soybeanmarkets. WASDE estimates for U.S. endings stocks domestically and globally were mostly lower thantrade expectations, particularly for U.S. and world corn stocks. In general, the initial productionestimates for U.S. corn and soybean production were below pre-report trade estimates. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2023/24 were reduced by 100 million bushels to 2,022 million bushels. Thiswas mostly due to increases in corn use for ethanol (50 million bushels) and increased exportexpectations (50 million bushels). USDA reduced 2023/24 world ending stocks for corn by 5.2 MMT, to313.08 MMT, despite very modest reductions by USDA to the South American crop. Relatively wide gapsremain between South American estimates of Brazilian and Argentinian corn and soybean crops andwhat USDA has estimated. The bigger surprise was in the 2024/25 balance sheets for corn. USDA’s firstnumbers for the 2024/25 corn crop came in with less acres than were in the USDA outlook released inFebruary and using the 181 bushel/acre trendline yield and lowered beginning stocks, dropped totalsupply by 269 million bushels. While feed use was down 50 million bushels from the February outlook,use for ethanol was up 150 million bushels and exports were 150 million bushels higher than in theFebruary outlook. This resulted in carryout stocks being 514 million bushels less than in the Februaryoutlook and reset the baseline for the crop that is being planted now. For soybeans, there were essentially no changes for the U.S. 2023/24 balance sheet. USDA did lowerending stocks in the world soybean balance sheet by 2.44 MMT from their April estimate. This is amodest reduction in world soybean ending stocks given the documented weather disruptions andcatastrophic events that have and are occurring in parts of Brazil and Argentina. Despite Argentina’sdryness & the hefty 10- to 25-inch Brazilian rains in RGDS the past 2-3 weeks, the World Board left itsArgentine estimate at 50 MMT & only sliced 1 MMT from the April estimate for Brazil to 154MMT. Given bean reports of 47.5 to 49 MMT from Argentina’