市场展望——2024年5月23日

Market Perspectives May 23, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT July 2024 Corn Futures.......................................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 6FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 8Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ................................................................................. 9DDGS Comments....................................................................................................................................... 9Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 10Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 10U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 12Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 12Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 12Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 12 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook Recent frosts in eastern, northern, and central Ukraine didn’t cause significant damage to grain andoilseed crops according to a state weather forecaster in Ukraine. Some damage to early seedlings ofcorn and sunflower has been seen but in relatively localized areas. Wheat and other frost-tolerantcereals should be able to pass through minor frosts, but final assessments won’t be known until harvesttime. The situation in Ukraine was much better than in Russia, where frost damaged significant cropareas. IKAR cut its forecast for Russia’s wheat crop another 2.5 MMT to 83.5 MMT after a “more exactassessment of frost damage and dryness across the south.” Total grain production is now forecast at 132MMT, down 3 MMT from its prior outlook. The ag consultancy lowered its 2024-25 Russian wheatexport projection by 2 MMT to 45 MMT. Total grain exports are now forecast at 57 MMT, down 2.5MMT. South American crop consultant Dr. Cordonnier left his Argentine crop estimates at 47 MMT for cornand 50 MMT for soybeans though he thinks the estimates may decline further as harvest progresses. ForBrazil, Cordonnier left his crop forecasts at 112 MMT for corn and 147 MMT for soybeans with a neutralbias toward both. In the U.S., excessive moisture is slowing planting progress in the Midwest and leading to poor cropconditions for crops in the Gulf states. River bottoms in many areas of Iowa are seeing flooding afterrecent heavy rains. Corn futures are adding risk premium as the odds of a reduction in U.S. corn acresare increasing while drought deepens and expands in Mexico. Mexico has become the U.S.’s largestmarket for corn and is rapidly becoming one of the largest markets for imported corn in the world.Adverse weather is capping Mexican corn production and the expected carryover supplies are dwindlingto about 16 days of consumption. Any loss of production in Mexico is likely to be met with a similarincrease in imports, a vast majority of which will be sourced from the U.S. China will offer nationwide full-cost, planting income insurance policies for rice, wheat and corn. Thepolicies are aimed at improving crop insurance protection, stabilizing farmers’ income, supporting therevitalization of rural areas and better safeguarding food security. This action should be supportive ofplantings for these staples both this year and in the future. Private exporters reported sales activities of 113,050 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of thetotal, 56,525 metric tons are for delivery during the 2023/2024 marketing year and 56,525 metric tonsa