市场展望——2024年5月2日

Market Perspectives May 2, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT July 2024 Corn Futures.......................................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 6FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 8Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ................................................................................. 9DDGS Comments....................................................................................................................................... 9Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 10Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 10U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 12Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 12Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 12Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 13 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook Weather is the current focal point of traders with regards to price determination for corn and othergrains on the CBOT. Currently, the Midsouth, much of the Midwest and Eastern Plains states are wetand getting wetter over the next 10 – 14 days. However, great variability exists in the amount ofprecipitation that actually falls on any specific location. A few miles can make the difference betweenreceiving half an inch of rain from a shower to as much as 4 inches from a shower passing through.Above normal rainfall is forecast to cover most of the corn/soybean production areas over the next twoweeks. There will be less tolerance by the marketplace for additional rainfall beyond May 12thif plantingprogress is slowed down as expected from the current wetness. Black Sea area weather is also in the spotlight as dryness has been prevalent in that region. The EU/GFSmodels are in general agreement with respect to the week’s rain event in southwest Russia. A smallportion of Southwest Russia may receive 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain in the coming days, the majority of theBlack Sea winter wheat belt stays arid. A major pattern change is not indicated prior to May 14th.Assuming this forecast holds for the next 10 days, April 1stto May 9thrainfall in most of the EasternUkraine and Southwester Russia area will see just 17-60% of normal precipitation. The Biden Administration announced a set of rules for participation of corn-based ethanol as a feedstockfor alcohol-to-jet sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) with adjustments to the GREET model for calculating thecarbon intensity of SAF from ethanol and HEFA-type oils such as soybean oil, canola oil, used cooking oiland animal fats. The rules which only apply to SAF produced under the 40B tax credit which is scheduledto be replaced by the 45Z tax credits in 2025, also provide a mechanism for corn produced underspecific Carbon-Smart Agriculture provisions to further reduce the carbon intensity of SAF by 10 points.This announcement will have little practical impact on corn currently in the bin and likely will have littleimpact on the corn market for new crop corn, but it does provide some insight into what theadministration is thinking with regards to the implementation of the 45Z program which is nowscheduled be in effect during 2025 through 2027. New CBOT daily price limits...Effective May 1st, the Chicago Board of Trade will reset daily price limitsfor grain and oilseed futures. Price limits for each product are reset twice per year – on the first tradedate in May and the first trade date in Novem