市场展望——2024年5月30日

Market Perspectives May 30, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT July 2024 Corn Futures.......................................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 6FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 8Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ................................................................................. 9DDGS Comments....................................................................................................................................... 9Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 10Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 10U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 12Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 12Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 12Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 12 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook USDA reported sales of 215 TMT of corn to Mexico of which 165 TMT was for 23/24 and 50 TMT for24/25. Spain was also in for US corn this week. Argentine corn exports to China are expected to start inJuly with the approval of two varieties of GMO corn. EU corn exports are 16.7 MMT, down from 25 MMTa year ago. US corn exports were 42.4 million bushels last week. China took 87 TMT of corn last week,leaving 107 TMT in unshipped purchases. Cumulative inspections are up 26.4% from last year at 1.429billion bushels. USDA projects corn exports up 29.4% from a year ago. Brazilian corn exports are seen at 520 TMT in May. Brazil’s corn crop is seen at 118.4 MMT by AgRuralwith USDA’s most recent estimate at 122 MMT. The Safrina corn crop is 2% harvested. Argentina’s corncrop is 28% harvested with the current estimate from the Rosario Exchange at 47.5 MMT, whereasUSDA’s latest estimate is at 53 MMT. A cold snap may reduce the leafhopper outbreak and slow thedamage to the Argentinian corn crop. US sorghum exports were 1.9 million bushels last week with cumulative exports now at 192.6 millionbushels versus 65.7 million bushels last year. Soil moisture conditions have significantly changed in the US Midwest since early April. Two months ago,much of Iowa and a large portion of the Midwest US were in the grips of a severe drought and very lowsoil moisture conditions. This week’s drought monitor map shows that drought conditions have beenfully eliminated in Iowa and Nebraska and more rain is forecast for Texas, Oklahoma, the Delta areas ofArkansas and Louisiana as well as for much of the Central Plains area. The change in soil moistureconditions should set the stage for relatively good crop condition reports for corn and soybeans thatstart next week. Warmer temperatures are expected in the cornbelt over the next 6 to 10 days, butextreme heat stays absent until at least into mid-June. This should further crop development since goodmoisture combined with a rapid accumulation of growing degree days will lead to good earlydevelopment of the corn and soybean crops. In comparison, the soil moisture conditions in the Black Sea area are in fast retreat. Major forecastingmodels confine precipitation to the far south of Russia through June 10th, while subsoil moisture will beat very low levels and insufficient nearly everywhere else in the region by mid-June. While the wheatmarket will be less interested in Black Sea weather as wheat harvest in that area begins soon, that areais the major corn producing area of Russia and the corn growing areas in U