您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。[远东资信]:2025年商业银行“二永债”市场简析:探寻化债背景下的供需博弈与结构性机遇 - 发现报告

2025年商业银行“二永债”市场简析:探寻化债背景下的供需博弈与结构性机遇

2025-04-11柴柯青远东资信X***
AI智能总结
查看更多
2025年商业银行“二永债”市场简析:探寻化债背景下的供需博弈与结构性机遇

2025$%&'()*+,-./0122345,6789:;<=>?@ABC /01234561research@fecr.com.cn !"#" “!"#”$%&'(!)*+#,"-#./0123%&'(4)#1$%&'(56.*+789:1:;<=.4)2>1?@ABCDE1FGHIJKLM3NO#PQR;STUVW -.$%/01 1.23456789:78;<$%=>2024.11.182.23456?@A$%=>2022.7.143.23456BC78A$%=>2021.10.21 X)YZ[\]1.^(_`ab12024c%&'(“!"#”^(_`defgh1ij"-#“k[c”lm1%&'(no“kp^g”qrst#u+W2.^(vwab1x;($“!"#”^(_`iy1z{'($“!"#”^(|}iyW3.^(~)ab1h~)“!"#”^(_`h1Äz!)*+#hÅ)#Ç^(ÉÑÖcKÜ1"-#hÅ)#Ç^(ÉÑáàâäãq24c;åçÜW4.^(éèab1GYZêëéèà(íì12024c“!"#”îï^(éè<=àâ1z{(ñó;åòôW5.öõk[ab12025c“!"#”öõ_`ú1.2ùûqü†°¢£öõh§1M-!)*+#öõH•¶ßÖcKÜq"-#Ö®àâ1z{'(b©™´*¨yW !)YZ[\]1.≠uÆß,Ø∞è±1“!"#”uÆß,Ø∞èáÖcKÜäã1"-#Ø∞è32021c≤≥¥μ!)*+#W2.F“*∂∑”∏πà1!)*+#A∫èáà(äã1ñóéªêëAºW3.Ωæø¿∏πà1£¡î¬¿√ƒ≈∆ñó«»,A∫∆….ÀÃ1Ωæ≤≥ÕŒsÅ)qœ–õ—“!)*+#1Å)éª,õ”éªï;åAºW ‘.’÷1≠◊ÿŸ±12025c1⁄¤‹(›*fifl‡·‚#∏πà'(*∂„‰ÂÊ1'(*+78¨yÁ;åËÈWÍÎ1ÏÌö“!"#”c¢öõ_`Ós1F*+8Ôè>ƒ≈à1-^¨yÓSW≠ƒ≈±1Ò!"#ÚÛ£Ò*∂∑ÚÙ-à.ı„¿√—“1ˆ$˜3ı„ñó#Ö®Òéè‚Ú1¯*˘˙˚¸˝˛1Áˇ!Ωæı‚¿√"#W DEFG“*+,”H $X%∏π]&⁄x'*+()*+.Ö®,˝1-x%&'(*+()6≈.ä/‚0Ê ≠1234I5ö1234III51x'*+()*+l6≠7X_8^9£˙a:q;<4.()ëÃW234=>$Basel Accord%$˜234'(()?@Au@BC.XÃD˙E'(*+,«»()FG1H.$£¡IJ*+YZKCqSLx''(ÓMîNOqâs'(ÃP.ñó«»,YZ«»W1988c1234?@AQR^S1À3PX*+T‰,*+FG.x'=>5$U01234I5%1V4çW()*+.XY,Zs6≈1$¶´()*+^9fK.[\]^_WÍM1⁄¤¶´dg,¶´«»Ó`ab1234?@AcM32004cq2010cq2017c^S¡1234II51234III51‡de'(ëÃ..∫˝‚W≠fgK±1FhJi≈¶´˘˙,MîNOHFÓ˝.jk…K1x'*+()*+l6≠7X*+8Ôè6≈l;I¢«»)mn˝W -x%&'(*+()o\hJx'_8Xp>,qÔxf()ªr>.ƒ≈1Ö®su£0Ê.()ëÃW:ë±1-x%&'(*+()cM6e¡†tuv] üXuv$1994-2003c%]wx()uvWF1994c…y1%&'(•z;{|6}.~Y1()5i6£Ωæ{Ä,bZÅÇW1994c1zxÉÑ'(^S1À3Ö%&'(Ü(*∂t#Ñá)~.Oà51V4ç W¡*+8ÔèXY1â<ä*∂t#Ñá)~ãÀåFW1995c1%&'(ç5éS1Äü†èêU_C%&'(.*+8ÔèÓës38%WítFGXìîóö2003cW ü!uv$2004-2011c%]«»()uvW⁄¤%&'(ÓïñVèçÜ1«»Ö®=b1âQ˜3%&'(*+8Ôès1óò«»ôyöWõúzx'(&=A}ú12002cùû‹(îï*+8Ôè£4.27%1ü†(îï*+8Ôè°2.6%W2004c¢1£'(A^S1%&'(*+8Ô)~§ç51‘ë*+•æ¶ß1234II5.†‹®©1<ä*+8ÔèT™aç1âÖ'(A(´ÅÇ,ñ¨≠ÆØ¡∞/_CW2004≤≥1£78û‹(*+±≤1z≥¥¶cM›*û‹(1∆Íμ∂1%&'(Ö®Á*+∆'(^9_∑,Ï∏ã•/1lh„‰^9n˝1ÍÎ1≥(π∫®Jü†(Oμª*ºüÅΩæ78*+¶WÍuv1%&'(ÓïñVÑá≠2003cø.18%âm2011cø.1%W¿m2011cù1%&'(*+8Ôè£12.7%W ü†uv$2012m¡%]{|()uvW2008c˙E¶´¬Ω√^1¶´YZƒ≈‹∆çÜ1'(ëÃ<=«¨W2009cIMF»™1˙E¶´ΩæF2007m2010cõb©.DE…TÁö4.1ùûÀÃ,'(«ÕÄz2/3.DEWÍM1‡2010cÀxéS.1;Œ·œ–—ç“5,1234III5$¢”*+%£‘’1˙E*+()÷’˝◊W-x32009cQRÿŸ234?@A1()B⁄¤‹234=>()_8˝‚1£'(A≤≥¤y3æ›fifl{|.‡·õ*+()*+W2012c7‚1£'(A^S1%&'(*+)~§ç(„()51Ü(ªr>()1Ö‹‰'(,z{'(.*+8Ôè()6≈Cw£11.5%,10.5%1ƒF2018cøFW2023c10‚1x¶´()‘Ê^S1%&'(*+)~§ç5$‡àU01*+§ç5%1*+()åFÁŸËÈè1ÍhJx'_8Xp>1Îo\xf()ªr>.ƒ≈1Ï/ÏÌ«»qA∫q*+.î¬ÀÃWõúx¶´(´)~Ê}ú12012cùm2024cù1%&'(*+8Ôè≠13.25%ªm15.74%W $!%CÌ·Ó]Ò!"#Ú$%&'(56.*+9:1:;<=.4)2>1?@ABCDE1FGHIJKLM3NO#PQR;STUV Ò!"#Ú$%&'(!)*+#,"-#./0123%&'(4)#WÄz1%&'(!)*+#]$å%&'(^(.q+¶ÔHIJ,騮IJïFÒVÉ,XÚ#PÉ…M1üP*+qÄÛX)*+9:,Ù/*+#Ç…y.#ÇW%&'("-#]$å%&'(^(.qGHIJFÒVÉqXÚ#PÉ,ı3h3+õ#ÇI:.4)#ˆ…M1^(Éü˜J;.å;vwü†…y.¯˘Cöõ..#ÇW≠%&'(¶´#Ò‰±1¿m2025c3‚31.1!)*+#,"-#Ò‰Cw£4.15ùûÃ,2.43ùûÃ1É%&'(¶´#Ò‰Ñ5Cw£40%q23.38%W ‡zx'(^(.NO¶´#$23z(#01%q!)*+#$23z(!)*+#01A%,"-#$23z("-#01%£á1˙˚Ò!"#Ú^(UV] õ”ab1NO¶´#õ”3-5c£i¸!)*+#.õ”O˝£10c1^(ÉFöõyü5c≤≥?‡;U_k[$10cõ—“Fü5cù˛;U_k[Pq15cõ—“Fü10cù˛;U_k[P%¸"-#¯˘Cõ”1^(ɡ^(….!5cM1;P3"c¨.$R^(….Mü5c¨.%˙B¸BCk[W GHIJab1NO¶´#ıc3!)*+#1!)*+#ıc3"-#1"-#.GHIJ#ÿLMW 騮ab1"-#Ñ!)*+#.LM2>#$WÄz1!)*+#.+¶,é¨Ó?çy%1&Óô'Ù¸()*®¸"-#.^('(;P)*˙B¸BC+õ#Ç+¨1QÓæu,ú^_1-Ôß+¨BCÓ…TöàXT¨c¢W RSTUV1!)*+#,"-#ïR;STUV1Q"-#c3!)*+#STW!)*+#,"-#.R;ST¸nüUV1/¯ç0Ò1^^_^0∂1^(É;PF¯ƒ2ë#ÇJ;Éμ3.45à1Á#Ç.+¶6(BC¸˙BST1STBCÓ?7ôWÄz1ƒ6"-#ÅÄÛX)*+c@ADEM1™8≈!)*+#.ST9\W Ò!"#Ú$%&'(56.*+789:1Äz!)*+#£%&'(i6.!)*+9:1"-#£ÄÛX)*+9:W1*+§ç5z<ä¡%&'(*+9:.Cv1:;∏<X)*+qÄÛX)*+,!)*+WÄz1∏<X)*+:;ÜA*+¸NOüq*+Mπq=>MπqXÚ«»G?q-C¿é@ŸÄÛX)*+:;ÄÛX)*+9:·ÄAB,L}ü˜*+?TŸBC¸!)*+:;!)*+9:·ÄABq¥ßDEG?qL}ü˜*+?TŸBCWã3NO#Ç1Ò!"#Ú.õ”#œq騮C…π>1ôDËÈ'(Eõ*+¨y1Q!"#^(éèXÚAs3üP´*u+1ÓAFGü˜P∫1$'(î¬*+u+∆«».ı„noWõú()6≈1%&'(∏<X)*+8ÔèÓës35%qX)*+8ÔèÓës36%q*+8ÔèÓës38%Wõúx¶´(´)~Ê}ú12024cüû°¢1xf%&'(.*+8ÔèqX)*+8Ôè,∏<X)*+8ÔèCw£15.74%q12.57%q11%1ïqÔ()6≈W≠˝≈äã±12014c‡’1%&'(*+8ÔèKÜ1H∏<X)*+8Ôè-<=ªœWÄz1∏<X)*+78IJ3é@…TqKY·™´*ÅaR1⁄¤Kc%&'(J-LéÜë6M1N¨ªAº1=éôy;åàâ1"-#q!)*+9:ÅÖ®u£%&'(*+78.569:W *EDI./JK 1.^(_`ab12024c%&'(Ò!"#Ú^(_`defgh1ij"-#Òk[cÚlm1%&'(noÒkp^gÚqrst#u+12025cX°¢^(;åOË ≠^(|}±1zxV|!)*+#^(32013c7‚25.1$˜PQRST%(^(.Ò13RT%!)Ú¸V|"-#^(32019c1‚25.1$˜zx'(^(.Ò19zx'("-01ÚW:ë±12017cq2021c£^(}‰h§1Cw^(¡126|q145|1Äz!)*+#^(}‰h§£2017cq2022c1Cw^(¡126|q105|1"-#^(}‰h§£2021c1^(¡63|W2025cX°¢1%&'(U^(¡9|Ò!"#Ú1:;4|!)*+#,5|"-#1Göõ-^¨yíì1‹BCVzF3‚†^(W ≠^(_`±1⁄¤!)*+#,"-#.Ó`^91%&'(êë^(!"#_`áuWRKÜäã12025cX°¢^(6¢OËW⁄¤"-#≤≥^(1Ò!"#Úêë^(_`≠2018c.4007.2ûÃXÜm2019c5955ûÃ1!)*+#,"-#^(_`ÉÑCw£51.11%q48.89%1ÍM2020q2021cÒ!"#Ú^(_`,Yv#ÇÉÑIJãÖKCW2022q2023c1Ò!"#Ú^(‘_`Kz;â1Äz1!)*+#^(_`Wb‹ZÜ12022q2023cãÑ2021cCwªÿ2956.82ûÃq2265.17ûÃ1H"-#^(_`≠2021c.5855ûÃâm2022c.2814ûÙÁm2023c.2722ûÃ1!)*+#Ö"-#su[‘12023c!)*+#,"-#^(_`ÉÑCw£75.6%q24.4%W/y1'(X)*+8Ôèêëh1\óÎ]>*+789:∂#ÿÏÌu+j^1j͇^(u+#s.!)*+#£iW2024cÒ!"#Ú^(_`1666.2ûÃqdefgh1Äz!)*+#,"-#^(_`CwμѪœ1180ûÃq4325ûÃ1"-#^(_`‹∆çÜWi6£j$1%&'(noós¨t#[Øh¨t#12019c15Â'(^(."-#l32024c˙Bk[1ÏÌ*+78ƒ≈1'(-^"-#_`ªÿW2025cX°¢!"#^(OË1^(_`μÑ_cμõSL34%W 2.^(vwab1x;($Ò!"#Ú^(_`iy1z{'($Ò!"#Ú^(|}iy ≠!)*+#^(_`±12014-2024cx;%&'(^(_`êëáKÜäã1≠1280ûêm5310ûÃWx;%&'(!)*+#^(_`Ö®u£iy12018c^(_`ÉÑ¥μ50%12023cªmZh81.94%12024câm55.42%Wü†B%&'(!)*+#^(_