孟加拉国2025–2050年低碳转型之路

JANUARY 2025 PATHWAYS FOR LOW-CARBONTRANSITION IN BANGLADESH2025–2050 JANUARY 2025 Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2025 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2025. ISBN 978-92-9277-148-5 (print), 978-92-9277-149-2 (PDF), 978-92-9277-150-8 (ebook)Publication Stock No. TCS250005-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS250005-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country”in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Tables and FiguresAcknowledgmentsAbbreviationsExecutive Summary 1Model and Its Technologies1Introduction1Methodology and Assumptions1Technologies Incorporated in the Model3 2National Results of the Model8Total Final Energy Demand8Sectoral Contribution of Final Energy Demand12Total Primary Energy Supply16Structure of Electricity Generation21Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions26 3Alternative Energy Sources and Options for Mitigation and Efficiency Improvements33Scale and Cost of Emissions Mitigation33Natural Gas35Solar37Wind Power40Coal42Road Transport44Agriculture46Buildings48Cooking51 4Investment Cost and Financing OptionsAdditional InvestmentPrivate InvestmentForeign InvestmentBank CreditBondsInternational Financial AssistanceNovel Ways of Funding for Energy Efficiency 5Low-Carbon Pathway for Dhaka City69Introduction69Methodology and Assumptions70Total Final Energy Demand Dhaka71Electricity Supply for Dhaka73Emissions for Dhaka74Investment Requirements for Dhaka78Policy Options for Dhaka80 6Conclusions82Supply-side Measures83Demand-side Measures84Results for Dhaka City85National Policy Implications86 Appendix: Emerging EmissionMitigation Options88 References91 Tables 1Summary of Low-Carbon Targets Adopted in the Low-Carbon Scenario32Population Projections (millions)33Gross Domestic Product (PPP) Projections ($ billion 2010/yr)34Key Technologies for Low-Carbon Road Map45Compound Annual Growth Rate of Final Energy Demand by Major Fuels 2030–2050,11Low-Carbon Scenario6Final Energy Sectoral Growth Rate 2030-2050 in Business-as-Usual Scenario137Compound Annual Growth Rate of Final Energy Demand by Sector from 2030–2050168Compound Annual Growth Rate of Domestic Primary Energy Supply by Various Fuel20Commodities 2030–2050, Low-Carbon Scenario9Compound Annual Growth Rate of Energy Imports by Fuel Type 2030–2050,20Low-Carbon Scenario10Compound Annual Growth Rate of Electricity Supply from Renewable Sources 2030–2050,23Low-Carbon Scenario11Mitigation Potential of Key Supply-side Technologies3412Mitigation Potential of Key User Sectors3513Natural Gas Barriers and Enablers for Efficiency Improvements3714Barriers and Enablers for Future Development of Solar Photovoltaic3915Barriers and Enablers for Future Development of Wind Power4116Barriers and Enablers for Future Development of Efficient Coal-based Power4417Barriers and Enablers for Electric Vehicles4518Barriers and Enablers for Efficient Irrigation Pumps4719Barriers and Enablers for Efficiency Improvement in Construction5020Barriers and Enablers for Energy Efficiency in Cooking5221Barriers and Enablers for Industrial Energy Efficiency5422Investment Requirement Under the Business-as-U