迈向绿色和有弹性的泰国2024

September 2024Muthukumara Mani and Hector Pollitt © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings,interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of TheWorld Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data includedin this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in theinformation, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods,processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other informationshown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bankconcerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver ofthe privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encouragesdissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, fornoncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution: Please cite the work as follows: Mani, M. & Pollitt, H. (2024) “Towards a Green andResilient Thailand” (September), World Bank, Washington, DC. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover Illustration: Ho Thuy Tien. TOWARDSA GREENAND RESILIENTTHAILAND September 2024Muthukumara Mani and Hector Pollitt CONTENTS Acknowledgements........................................................................................................................................xAcronyms & Abbreviations...........................................................................................................................xiExecutive Summary......................................................................................................................................xii 1From Growth at Any Cost to Growing Sustainably 1.1.Thailand’s economic aspirations......................................................................................................... 21.2.Emerging constraints on growth......................................................................................................... 21.3.Cross-cutting challenges to future growth......................................................................................... 41.4.Specific climate and environmental challenges.................................................................................. 41.4.1.Climate vulnerability................................................................................................................................................................. 41.4.2.Carbon emissions and commitments .............................................................................................................................. 61.4.3.Degradation of natural resources....................................................................................................................................... 91.5.The opportunity for a new growth model that is low-carbon and climate-resilient..................... 13 2Dealing with climate risks 15 2.1.Natural Climate Hazards................................................................................................................. 162.2.Physiographic regions and major climate influences........................................................................ 172.3.Forests and built-up area................................................................................................................. 182.4.Estimating current and future impacts of climate hazards.............................................................. 192.4.1.Floods and sea level rise........................................................................................................................................................ 192.4.2.Drought and heat stress....................................................................................................................................................... 252.4.3.Other disasters.......................................................................................................................................................................... 28 3Transitioning to a Bio-Circular-Green Economy31 3.1.1.E3-Thailand Model.............................................