越南2045年绿色增长：通往有弹性和可持续未来的道路

Pathways to a resilientand sustainable futurePublic Disclosure Authorized VIET NAM 2045GROWING GREENER Pathways to a resilientand sustainable future ©2025 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank and its Board of ExecutiveDirectors. The World Bank do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors,denominations and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of theWorld Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities ofthe World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, the World Bank, 1818H Street NW, Washington DC, 20433, USA, Fax: 202-522-2625; email: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover design by Le Bros, photo credit ©shutterstock.com CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTSiii Adapting to climate impactsvRecommendations for 2026–30xReconciling economic growth and emission reductionsxiiiRecommendations for 2026–30xxLeveraging the marine economy for sustainable and resilient growthxxiiRecommendations for 2026–30xxiv INTRODUCTION2 CHAPTER 1. ADAPTING TO CLIMATE IMPACTS5 1.1. Viet Nam’s environmental context71.2. What is the economic cost of inaction in the face of climate change?81.3. What are the distributional impacts of various global climate change scenarios?161.4. How could investing in adaptive measures help?211.5. Which policies would support resilient growth?27 CHAPTER 2. RECONCILING GROWTH AND EMISSION REDUCTIONS31 2.1. Can current mitigation policies realize Viet Nam’s net zero objective?332.1.1. How do these policies stack up?332.1.2. What can these current policies achieve?382.2. What more will it take to put Viet Nam on the net zero emissions path?422.3. Will a carbon tax reduce GHG emissions?452.4. Which growth challenges does Viet Nam face amid carbon emissions mitigation?512.5. Where are the green growth opportunities for Viet Nam?542.6. Which policies will support Viet Nam on its 2050 net zero path?57 CHAPTER 3. MARINE ECONOMY – A CRUCIAL NEXUS FOR CLIMATE ADAPTATIONAND MITIGATION 3.1. Why focus on the marine economy?633.2. How does the marine sector contribute to the economy,and what are its growth prospects?663.3. What are the main challenges hindering sustainable growth ofViet Nam’s marine economy?723.4. What is the value of marine ecosystem services in Viet Nam?753.5. What is the government’s vision for Viet Nam’s marine economyas outlined in Resolution 36?773.6. What further measures are required to ensure the marine economy’s sustainability?793.7. How can policies and institutions ensure the sustainable implementationof Resolution 36 for the marine economy?813.8 Policies, Institutions, and Investments - Recommendations for Viet Nam84 ANNEXES Annex 1.0. Update on the five policy packages of the 2022 CCDR87Annex 1.1. Description of the MANAGE model90Annex 1.2. Baseline and alternative scenarios91Annex 1.3. Indirect effects92Annex 1.4. Impact of global climate change on water resources93Annex 1.5. Damage functions94Annex 1.6. Budgetary policies and actions to drive green growth95Annex 1.7. Policy options mapped to the National Adaptation Plan with country examples96Annex 2.1. Mitigation policies analysis – MANAGE model assumptions100Annex 2.2 Transport and agriculture as major contributors to mitigating GHGs101Annex 2.3. Viet Nam Energy Efficiency Program103Annex 2.4. Carbon pricing in Viet Nam – existing and on-going efforts105Annex 2.5. Fiscal policies underpinning the decarbonization process106Annex 2.6. PDP8 implementation: costs and delays107Annex 2.7. Evolution of composition of Viet Nam’s GHG emissions (excluding LUCF)109Annex 3.1. Data on the economic sectors included in the marine economy109Annex 3.2. Review of global experiences in blue economy and relevance for Viet Nam113Annex 3.3. International experience with fiscal instruments to support marine policies116 REFERENCES118 FIGURES Figure 0.1. Impact of climate change on real GDP levels relative to baselineviiiFigure 0.2. Impacts of adaptation measures on GDP relative to baselineixFigure 0.3. Viet Nam’s development has been carbon intensivexiiiFigure 0.4. Viet Nam’s emissions profilexiiiFigure 0.5. Mitigation goals of Viet Nam (2030 and 2050)xivFigure 0.6. Achieving net zero requires a steep decline in carbon intensityxvFigure 0.7. GHG emission reductionsxviiFigure 0.8. Impact of current mitigation and accelerated decarbonization policies on real GDP levelsxviiFigure 0.9. Share of global GDP and emissions cover