越南崛起：通往高收入未来的道路（英）2025

Pathways toa High-Income FuturePublic Disclosure Authorized VIET NAMRISING Pathways toa High-Income Future ©2025 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank and its Board of ExecutiveDirectors. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors,denominations and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of theWorld Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities ofthe World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, the World Bank, 1818H Street NW, Washington DC, 20433, USA, Fax: 202-522-2625; email: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover design by Le Bros, photo credit ©shutterstock.com ABBREVIATIONS ACKNOWLEDGMENTSOVERVIEW Viet Nam’s high-income ambitions require accelerating growth beyondits strong historical performance2To achieve high-income status, Viet Nam needs to revive the drivers of growth3Falling investment rates need to be reversed4Rapid aging will increase the non-working age population sharewhile increasing care responsibilities for the working-age population, particularly women5Greater productivity will be central to higher growth, driven in large part by higher skills7Institutions need to be modernized to better support economic growth10Viet Nam must also effectively respond to a fast-changing global context11This report proposes a comprehensive reform agenda of five connected policy packages:13A) Policy package 1: Supporting Private Sector Development15B) Policy package 2: Investing in Resilient Infrastructure19C) Policy package 3: Increasing Skills, Participation and Resilience21D) Policy package 4: Ensuring Everyone Gains from the HIC Transition24E) Policy package 5: Modernizing Institutions27 INTRODUCTION 33 Chapter 1: Ever Soaring Ambitions: FromĐổi Mớito a New Era of National Rise 1.1. Four decades of extraordinary progress sinceĐổi Mới331.2. New development ambitions and the challenge of reaching high-income by 2045341.3. Growing in a changing context: global and domestic megatrends381.4. The framework401.5. Taking stock421.5.1. Evolution of growth drivers421.5.2. Progress in implementing reforms491.6. The Report51 PART 1: PRODUCTIVITY AND COMPETITIVENESS Chapter 2: GVC Upgrading and Private Sector Development55 2.1. Backward analysis: Past achievements and emerging constraints ofViet Nam’s export model552.1.1. Concentration in low value-added exports562.1.2. A dual economy with limited linkages between FDI and domestic firms572.1.3. Limited supply of high skills is an increasingly binding constraint582.1.4. Emerging infrastructure bottlenecks threaten the competitiveness ofViet Nam’s manufacturing sector602.2. Forward looking diagnostic: Trading up in a changing world612.3. The reform agenda63 3.1.1. Skills and jobs3.1.2. Tertiary education3.2. Forward diagnostic3.2.1. Skills of the future3.2.2. Tertiary education3.3. Reform agenda Chapter 4: Fostering Firm Innovation91 4.1. Backward diagnostic4.2. Forward diagnostic4.3. Reform agenda 929699 Chapter 5: Green Energy Transition 5.1. Backward diagnostic5.2. Forward diagnostic5.3. Reform agenda 103105107 PART 2: LABOR AND HOUSEHOLDS Chapter 6: Aging and care6.1. Backward diagnostic6.2. Forward diagnostic6.3. Reform agenda Chapter 7: Social protection7.1. Backward diagnostic7.2. Forward diagnostic7.3. Reform agenda 122127132 8.1. Backward analysis8.1.1. Physical connectivity8.1.2. Digital connectivity Chapter 9: Adapting to Climate Change9.1. Backward diagnostic9.2. Forward diagnostic9.3. Reform agenda 159 160162166 Chapter 10: Resource mobilization10.1. Backward diagnostic10.1.1. Capital market development10.1.2. Fiscal revenue mobilization10.2. Forward diagnostic10.2.1. Capital market development10.2.2. Fiscal revenue mobilization10.3. Reform agenda 168 169169171174174175176 10.3.1. Unlocking the potential of Viet Nam’s capital markets17610.3.2. Modern fiscal revenue mobilization177 PART 4: INSTITUTIONS179 Chapter 11: Institutions179 11.1. Backward diagnostic18111.1.1. Market-complementing institutions: Public investment18111.1.2. Market-regulating institutions: Legal and regulatory framework18311.1.3. Institutions for a capable and accountable state: Central and local governance18511.1.4. Institutions for a capable and accountable state: Civil service18711.2. Forward diagnostic18811.2.1. Market-complementing institutions: Public investment18811.2.2. Market-regulating instituti