越南2045年突破：高收入未来的制度2025

Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized VIET NAM 2045BREAKING THROUGHInstitutions fora High-Income Future ©2025 The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.orgThis work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank and its Board of ExecutiveDirectors. The World Bank do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors,denominations and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of theWorld Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities ofthe World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, the World Bank, 1818H Street NW, Washington DC, 20433, USA, Fax: 202-522-2625; email: pubrights@worldbank.org.Cover design by Le Bros, photo credit ©shutterstock.com CONTENTSABBREVIATIONSACKNOWLEDGMENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYSummary Annex. Priority institutional reformsPart I. Viet Nam’s Institutional Stretch Goal1. Why institutions?2. Which institutions?3. An outline for deeper studyPart II. Market-Complementing and Market-Regulating Institutions fora Growth-Supporting State4. Public investments to support growth5. Legal and regulatory processes that support growthAnnex 1. Assessing Policy Impact AssessmentsPart III. Institutions for State Capability and Accountability6. Local governance to enhance economies of scale and efficiency7. Motivated and accountable civil servantsAnnex 2. Understanding public and private sector wage differencesPart IV. Institutions for a High-Income Viet Nam8. Understanding institutional change in Viet Nam9. Priorities for institutional progress for a high-income Viet Nam10. The future of institutions in Viet NamReferences iiiivxviii28113234355164757691114119121123126128 Summary Figure 1. The increasing importance (and acceptance) of the private sector.Summary Figure 2. Countries that advanced to high-income status fasterSummary Figure 3. Countries that advanced to high-income status fasterSummary Figure 4. The market-supporting institutions frameworkSummary Figure 5. Moving quickly to high-income status requires bothSummary Figure 6. The importance of regulatory enforcement.Summary Figure 7. Provinces control an increasing share of public investmentSummary Figure 8. Viet Nam’s public sector is large compared to many othersSummary Figure 9. The importance of independent constraints on the executive and due processFigure 1. Becoming a high-income country in only 20 years is the exception, not the rule.Figure 2. Poverty rates, by any measure, have fallenFigure 3. The growing importance of the private sector in Viet Nam’s economyFigure 4. Organizing framework for institutionsFigure 5. Property rights assessments over time and in international perspectiveFigure 6. Varied assessments of the courts in Viet NamFigure 7. Viet Nam achieved relatively high growth with low inflation, 2013-2024Figure 8. Viet Nam’s debt levels have been modest and declining as a share of GDPFigure 9. Viet Nam has a mildly countercyclical fiscal policy, on averageFigure 10. Laws and regulations are applied less consistently in Viet Nam than in comparatorsFigure 11. Moving quickly to high-income status requires both quantity and quality public investmentFigure 12. Viet Nam’s infrastructure has improved considerablyFigure 13. Vietnamese people are more accepting of private ownership,individual effort, and competition—and they still see a role for the governmentFigure 14. Countries that passed to high-income status quickly also improvedthe impartiality of their public administrationFigure 15. The continuous loop of institutional change to support markets and social goalsFigure 16. De jure rules for preparation of public investments rate well, but fall short of HICsFigure 17. Time overruns affect a majority of projects partly due tocumbersome adjustment processesFigure 18. Increasing level of provincial spending in total public investmentsFigure 19. Planning documents are easier to access, but only slightlyFigure 20. Infrastructure asset management systems fall short of HICsFIGURES vimproved implementation of lawsviibuilt more impartial public administrations.viiiixquantity and quality public investment.xxiixiiiand remuneration falls short of the private sectorxivxv4561417181920222426272930333745474949 Figure 21. The burden of compliance responds to government efforts, but the burden remains high55Figure 22. The regulatory burden is improving, but it is still substantial62Figure 23. Strength of policy impact assessments73Figure 24. The rel