锌月报：走势锚定宏观 锌价宽幅震荡

走势锚定宏观 锌价宽幅震荡 核心观点及策略 要点要点宏观面看，非农就业表现超预期反应了美国经济韧性尚存，且高于预期的通胀数据令降息预期放缓，市场预计11月降息25BP。国内政策积极转向，市场信心修复，有望带动四季度经济的环比改善。 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 要点供应端看，海外矿山再现扰动，Kipushi矿年内产量减半，叠加国内四季度北方矿山生产淡季及炼厂冬储需求增加，原料端支撑增强。炼厂检修复产，10月精炼锌产量预计回升至50.29万吨但低于同期水平。当前锌锭进口亏损较大，进口持续冲击影响有限。 李婷021-68555105li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 需求端看，海外维持高库存及贴水的状态，消费恢复较为曲折。国内以旧换新政策持续，汽车及家电板块维持较高景气度，此外镀锌板出口延续良好态势，风光保持正增速；近期政策转向，财政政策有望加码，地产政策优化，基建及地产均有修复预期，“银十”消费改善有望体现。 高慧gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 整体看，美联储步入降息周期及国内释放增量政策利好市场风险偏好改善，矿端及冶炼端扰动因素及消费季节性回暖为锌价提供支撑，不过也需警惕国内政策不及预期及消费改善缓慢带来锌价高位回落风险，预计沪锌主要波动区间24000-26000元/吨。国内供应低水平及进口锌锭冲击有限的背景下，去库仍可期，跨期尝试滚动正套。 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03112296投资咨询号：Z0021040 操作建议：单边回调做多，跨期滚动正套 风险因：美联储降息不及预期，国内未释放增量政策 目录 2.1美国方面...................................................................................................................................42.2欧元区方面...............................................................................................................................52.3国内方面..................................................................................................................................5 3.1锌矿供应情况...........................................................................................................................73.1.1海内外锌矿投产不改年内原料紧张格局...........................................................................73.1.2加工费延续筑底，锌精矿进口环比回落.........................................................................93.2精炼锌供应情况.....................................................................................................................103.2.1海外炼厂出现扰动，精炼锌增量预期减少.....................................................................103.2.2 10月精炼锌供应恢复但维持同比低位，精炼锌进口窗口维持关闭............................113.3精炼锌需求情况.....................................................................................................................123.3.1海外需求改善不稳定.........................................................................................................123.3.2初端企业开工率回升，镀锌板出口表现较好...............................................................143.3.3政策进一步加码，消费改善预期可期.............................................................................143.4海外库存维持高位，国内节后累库不改去库预期............................17 图表目录 图表1沪锌主连及LME三月期锌走势.................................................................................4图表2美国通胀情况................................................................................................................6图表3美国利率水平................................................................................................................6图表4美国就业市场.................................................................................................................6图表5欧美PMI数据...............................................................................................................6图表6欧元区通胀情况............................................................................................................6图表7欧元区利率水平............................................................................................................6图表8国内PMI数据................................................................................................................7图表9国内社融情况................................................................................................................7图表10 2024年海外锌矿产量增减情况（万吨）..................................................................8图表11全球锌矿月度产量情况...............................................................................................9图表12国内锌矿月度产量情况..............................................................................................9图表13内外矿加工费降至极低水平......................................................................................9图表14锌矿进口盈亏..............................................................................................................9图表15锌矿进口情况............................................................................................................10图表16冶炼厂原料库存天数................................................................................................10图表17全球精炼锌月度产量情况........................................................................................10图表18 2024年初以来海外炼厂事件汇总（万吨）............................................................11图表19国内精炼锌月度产量................................................................................................11图表20冶炼厂生产利润........................................................................................................11图表21精炼锌净进口情况....................................................................................................12图表23精炼锌进口盈亏情况................................................................................................12图表24全球精炼锌月度需求情况........................................................................................13图表25美国新建住