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发电成本（2023~2024年）

公用事业2024-05-01Paul Graham、Jenny Hayward、James FosterCSIRO话***

AI智能总结

GenCost 2023-24 Report Overview

Introduction

The GenCost 2023-24 report, published by Australia's National Science Agency, provides an in-depth analysis of current and projected generation technology costs. The report serves as a comprehensive resource for understanding the financial aspects of various energy generation technologies.

Key Findings

Scope and Reporting: The GenCost project encompasses a wide range of generation technologies, including nuclear, fossil fuels, renewables, and energy storage systems. It aims to provide updated cost estimates and projections for these technologies.
Feedback Incorporation: The report acknowledges and incorporates feedback from consultations, reflecting adjustments made to enhance the accuracy and relevance of the data presented.
Current Technology Costs:
- Capital Cost Source: The cost estimates are derived from a variety of sources, including industry reports, manufacturer data, and market trends.
- Nuclear SMR Costs: The report includes updated estimates for small modular reactors (SMRs), noting the discrepancy between high capital costs and the relatively low-cost nuclear electricity observed in other countries.
- Storage Technology Costs: Focuses on the capital costs associated with energy storage technologies, essential for supporting variable renewable energy sources.
Scenario Narratives and Data Assumptions: The report outlines different scenarios to explore potential future conditions, incorporating assumptions about technological advancements, policy changes, and market dynamics.
Projection Results:
- Inflationary Pressures: Discusses the impact of inflation on capital costs and operational expenses over time.
- Global Generation Mix: Projects the distribution of global electricity generation across different technologies in 2030 and 2050.
- Capital Cost Projections: Provides detailed projections for various generation technologies, highlighting changes since the previous report.
Levelised Cost of Electricity Analysis:
- Purpose and Limitations: Explains the methodology and limitations of calculating levelised cost of electricity (LCOE).
- LCOE Estimates: Offers LCOE estimates for different technologies, emphasizing the role of storage requirements in underpinning variable renewable costs.
Global and Local Learning Model: Highlights the importance of economies of scale and learning curves in reducing the cost of technology over time.

Conclusion

The GenCost 2023-24 report offers a detailed analysis of current and projected costs for various generation technologies, providing insights into the economic feasibility of transitioning to a low-carbon energy system. It underscores the complexities and considerations involved in planning for sustainable energy solutions, particularly in addressing the challenges posed by intermittent renewable energy sources and the need for efficient energy storage systems.

GenCost 2023 - 24 最终报告保罗·格雷厄姆、珍妮·海沃德和詹姆斯·福斯特2024年5月联系人保罗·格雷厄姆+61 2 4960 6061 格雷厄姆，P.，海沃德，J.和福斯特· J. 2024，GenCost 2023 - 24：最终报告，CSIRO，澳大利亚。 Copyright ©联邦科学与工业研究组织2024。在法律允许的范围内，保留所有权利，除非获得CSIRO的书面许可，否则不得以任何形式或以任何方式复制或复制本出版物版权涵盖的部分。重要免责声明 CSIRO建议本出版物中包含的信息包括基于科学研究的一般性陈述。建议读者并需要意识到此类信息可能不完整或无法在任何特定情况下使用。因此，在没有事先寻求专家专业、科学和技术建议的情况下，不得依赖或采取行动。在法律允许的范围内，CSIRO（包括其员工和顾问）不承担因使用本出版物（部分或全部）和其中包含的任何信息或材料而直接或间接产生的任何后果，包括但不限于所有损失、损害、成本、费用和任何其他赔偿。 CSIRO致力于尽可能提供网络访问内容。如果您在访问本文档时遇到困难，请联系www. csiro. au /en / contact。 Contents ...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................1141.1141.2151.3162262.1262.2272.3282.4292.5312.6332.7332.8363403.1404424.1424.2434.3455645.1645.2655.375全球和本地学习模式..................................................................................................................数据表....................................................................................................................数据假设。..............................................................................................................常见问题.................................................................................................................................. 技术包容性原则.....................................................................................................119......................................................................................................................................................122......................................................................................................................................................125 数字图2 - 1当前资本成本估算与以前报告的比较....................................................................................28图2 - 2选定技术的当前资本成本相对于GenCost 2022 - 23的变化（实际价值）.............................29图2 - 3每个GenCost报告中包含的核SMR成本估算时间线（日历年）和当前成本（财政年度开始）....................................................................................................................................................31图2 - 4新一代项目阶段....................................................................................................................35图2 - 5存储技术的资本成本，以美元/千瓦时为单位（总成本基础）..........................................37图2 - 6存储技术的资本成本，以美元/千瓦为单位(总成本基础)....................................................38图4 - 1按情景划分的2030年和2050年全球发电组合......................................................................44图4 - 2按技术和方案划分的全球氢气产量，公吨...........................................................................45图4 - 3按情景划分的黑煤超超临界预计资本成本.............................................................................46图4 - 4按情景划分的具有CCS的黑煤的预计资本成本与2022 - 23年预测相比..................................47图4 - 5按情景划分的天然气联合循环预计资本成本与2022 - 23预测相比.........................................48图4 - 6按情景划分的CCS天然气的预计资本成本与2022 - 23预测相比.................................................................................................................................................... 49图4 - 7天然气开放循环的预计资本成本（小），按情景与2022 - 23年预测相比...........................50图4 - 8按情景划分的核SMR的预计资本成本与2022 - 23预测相比.................................................................................................................................................... 51图4 - 9按情景划分的大规模核能的预计资本成本.............................................................................52图4 - 10与2022 - 23年预测相比，具有14小时存储的太阳能热的预计资本成本（基于15小时存储）....................................................................................................................................................53图4 - 11按情景划分的大规模太阳能光伏的预计资本成本与2022 - 23年预测相比.............................54图4 - 12按情景划分的屋顶太阳能光伏的预计资本成本与2022 - 23年预测相比................................55图4 - 13按情景划分的陆上风电预计资本成本与2022 - 23预测相比..................................................56图4 - 14按情景划分的固定和浮动海上风电的预计资本成本与2022 - 23年预测相比.........................57图4 - 15按方案划分的2小时电池的预计总资本成本(电池和工厂余额).............................................58图4 - 16按情景划分的抽水蓄能（12小时）的预计资本成本.........................................................59 图4 - 17当前政策情景下的预计技术资本成本与2022 - 23预测相比..................................................60图4 - 18 2050年全球NZE情景下的预计技术资本成本与2022 - 23年预测相比...................................61图4 - 19 2050年后全球NZE情景下的预计技术资本成本与2022 - 23年预测相比...............................62图4 - 20按情景划分的碱性和PEM电解槽的预计技术资本成本，与2022 - 23年相比.......................63图5 - 1在NEM和西澳大利亚州的9个天气年中，2030年部署的发电和存储容量范围.....................69图5 - 2在2023年和2030年实现NEM中60%、70%、80%和90%年可变可再生能源份额的水平成本.......................................................................................................................................................70图5 - 3 2023年按技术和类别计算的LCOE.........................................................................................72图5 - 4 2030年按技术和类别计算的LCOE.................................

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